Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
227 FXCA62 TJSJ 022104 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 504 PM AST Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry conditions are expected tomorrow as a Saharan Air Layer moves across the region. On Thursday, a tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean will increase showers and thunderstorms once again. Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories stay in place for southern Puerto Rico through tonight as the swell from Hurricane Beryl lingers. A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in place for this area through tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday... Hurricane Beryl has now left the forecast area and continues to move westward south of the Dominican Republic. Impacts were minimal across Puerto Rico and the USVI, however Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories stay in place for southern Puerto Rico through tonight. Drier air with suspended Saharan dust has entered the region, significantly reducing the amount of showers to about none. This trend will continue through tonight into tomorrow as this dry air mass remains over the islands. Hazy and hot conditions are expected throught the day, especially for coastal regions. However this dry trend will end quickly as on Thursday the approach of a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will bring an increase of passing showers and thunderstorms for Puerto Rico and the USVI. This wave is also forecast to bring windy conditions across the region which may yield in squally weather at times. Minor flooding is possible with the heaviest rainfall activity. Showers will continue into the night as the wave departs westward into the Caribbean. && .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday /from previous discussion/ The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical Atlantic with a low formation chance over the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. This low pressure is expected to move quickly over the Caribbean waters on Thursday, and move away from the local area by Friday morning. However, lingering moisture associated to the Invest 96L will generate showers and isolated thunderstorms across the islands and regional waters. By Saturday morning this activity will move over the Mona Passage and The Hispaniola. A mass of drier air is expected to follow and move over the region, promoting fair weather conditions through the beginning of the workweek. Despite of the presence of drier air, patches of moisture will be moving into the area. This, in combination with daytime heating and local effects will increase the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Latest model guidance suggest the arrival of a tropical wave between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Therefore, an increase in moisture is expected along with the potential for convective activity across the islands. Regardless of the expected weather, daytime temperatures will continue warm to hot. Highs will remain in the range between the mid to upper 80s and low 90s along the coastal and urban areas and heat indices surpassing the mid 100s each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Gusty winds will persist across the local terminals, mostly out of the ESE at 15G25KT. HZ due to Saharan dust will begin after 03/13Z, with VIS remaining at 6Z. Showers diminished in coverage, but Passing SHRA will be possible for the USVI terminals and TJSJ, but without significant impacts to operations. && .MARINE... Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will continue tonight as Major Hurricane Beryl moves westward across the Caribbean Basin, This will cause hazardous marine and coastal conditions to prevail especially for the Caribbean Waters and Passages. Drier conditions are expected from a Saharan Air Layer. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ002-012-013. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ002-003-007- 011-013. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007- 011-013. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007- 011. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723-726- 745. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ716. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ733-741. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ735. && $$ WS/RVT/RC