915
FXUS64 KSJT 042310
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Rain chances will continue for the long term as upper level
disturbances move through aloft, cold fronts push into the area,
and Hurricane Beryl makes its approach...

The cold front will eventually stall near our southern counties.
Disturbances in the northwest flow aloft could produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. The front could
also act as a source of convection Saturday afternoon and into the
evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could pose a threat for
damaging winds. Another front is possible on Monday, leading to
additional rain chances, but its southward progression through our
area varies between models.

As of this afternoon, The National Hurricane Center has Beryl making
landfall near the Texas/Mexico border on the Gulf. The forecast
track after that is more uncertain, with some models taking it up
the Rio Grande a ways and others curving the remnants into east
Texas. The path and speed of Beryl will have a big impact on how
much rainfall we will receive. Right now, the most likely rainfall
totals are in the 0.25 to 1.5 inch range (with the higher end
amounts in our southeastern counties). But if we get a favorable
track, we could see higher totals. Rainfall associated with Beryl
could start as early as Tuesday, with rain chances continuing
through the work week.

The uncertainty in the path of Beryl and the front on Monday has led
to a significant spread in the modeled high temperatures for Tuesday
onwards. Model highs for Tuesday range anywhere from the upper 60s
to the upper 90s. Right now, the NBM is keeping temperatures on the
higher end, so be on the lookout for potentially cooler
forecast highs once we get a better idea of Beryl`s movement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Friday afternoon, with the exception of perhaps KABI.
Cold front will sag through KABi on Friday morning, with several
of the models showing a period of MVFR cigs in the 2000-3000ft
range developing. Have accounted for some of this possibility in
the KABI terminal for now but will continue to monitor forecasts.
Otherwise, main weather story will be the possibility of at least
scattered convection developing during the afternoon on Friday
across the central and northern locations. CAMs are showing some
convection but are not terribly consistent in timing or location
at this point so will broadbrush it to some extent at this point
and later forecasts can pinpoint better.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

SCT to BKN CIGS at around 1500-2500 FT AGL between the 10Z to 16Z
Fri time-frame may cause MVFR conditions across the Big Country.
Confidence is too low to put BKN MVFR CIGS into 18Z ABI TAF at
the moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through 18Z Fri. S
to SE winds of 8-12 KT will continue through 01Z Fri, with wind
speeds then lowering to around 4-8 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  90  71  90 /  10  50  30  30
San Angelo  77  98  74  95 /   0  40  30  40
Junction    74  99  74  95 /   0  20  20  30
Brownwood   76  93  72  90 /  10  50  20  30
Sweetwater  75  89  71  92 /  10  50  30  30
Ozona       74  97  73  93 /   0  20  20  20
Brady       75  95  73  91 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07