179
FXUS64 KSJT 050558
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today is another hot day across West Central Texas. As of 1 pm,
temperatures are close to the same as they were 24 hours ago.
Heat Index values are forecast to reach around 100 to 107, with
the hottest conditions occurring over most of the Concho Valley
and Big Country where a Heat Advisory continues until 8 pm
tonight. Visible satellite shows sunny skies across our region,
while thunderstorms have developed down in Far West Texas/Big
Bend. Those storms should stay west of our forecast area today.
Meanwhile, to our north, a cold front is making its way down
through the TX Panhandle/Red River region. Some showers and storms
may develop along the front this afternoon/early this evening,
but hi-res models indicate that any activity will dissipate before
reaching our northern counties. Expect another warm night, with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The front will move through West Central Texas during the day
Friday, reaching the I-20 corridor by around noon, and the I-10
corridor by around 7 pm. The combination of day-time instability,
moisture (precipitable water values of 1.8+ inches in the vicinity
of the front), and lift from the front will cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours, with
highest chances across the central and northern parts of the
forecast area. Although severe thunderstorms are not expected with
this activity, severe downbursts can never really be ruled out
in strong Summertime thunderstorms. The high precipitable waters
will result in storms being efficient rainfall producers,
resulting in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For high
temperatures Friday, it`ll be cooler to the north where the cold
front will move through earlier (upper 80s to low 90s) and warmer
south of I-20 (mid to upper 90s).

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Rain chances will continue for the long term as upper level
disturbances move through aloft, cold fronts push into the area,
and Hurricane Beryl makes its approach...

The cold front will eventually stall near our southern counties.
Disturbances in the northwest flow aloft could produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. The front could
also act as a source of convection Saturday afternoon and into the
evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could pose a threat for
damaging winds. Another front is possible on Monday, leading to
additional rain chances, but its southward progression through our
area varies between models.

As of this afternoon, The National Hurricane Center has Beryl making
landfall near the Texas/Mexico border on the Gulf. The forecast
track after that is more uncertain, with some models taking it up
the Rio Grande a ways and others curving the remnants into east
Texas. The path and speed of Beryl will have a big impact on how
much rainfall we will receive. Right now, the most likely rainfall
totals are in the 0.25 to 1.5 inch range (with the higher end
amounts in our southeastern counties). But if we get a favorable
track, we could see higher totals. Rainfall associated with Beryl
could start as early as Tuesday, with rain chances continuing
through the work week.

The uncertainty in the path of Beryl and the front on Monday has led
to a significant spread in the modeled high temperatures for Tuesday
onwards. Model highs for Tuesday range anywhere from the upper 60s
to the upper 90s. Right now, the NBM is keeping temperatures on the
higher end, so be on the lookout for potentially cooler
forecast highs once we get a better idea of Beryl`s movement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will sag through KABI this
morning, and across the reaming terminal this afternoon.
Scattered convection is expected across the terminals after 17Z
but confidence in coverage and timing is rather low. Will maintain
PROB30 groups for this potential this afternoon. No precipitation
is expected this evening, but could see some some isolated
convection develop near the KABI terminal after 06/06Z.
Currently, confidence remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  91  73  97 /  30  30  10  10
San Angelo  74  94  74 100 /  30  50  10  10
Junction    74  95  74  97 /  20  40  10  10
Brownwood   72  91  72  96 /  20  40  10  10
Sweetwater  71  92  73 100 /  30  30  10  10
Ozona       73  92  73  97 /  20  40  10   0
Brady       73  90  73  94 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24