034
FXUS64 KSJT 301814
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Early this morning, a ragged stratus deck was developing over the
northwest Hill Country and along the I-10 corridor.  Southeast winds
were keeping temperatures in the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper
60s.

Another hot, sticky day is expected as the upper-level high is
centered over northwest Texas with 850mb temperatures of 18-22 deg
C.  Dewpoints today should only dry out to the mid 60s, thanks to
the southeast surface flow, so heat indices will once again range
from 100-105 degrees.  The existing Heat Advisory has been expanded
row or two counties westward to account for some locations that are
expected to reach 105 degrees for the Heat Index. Otherwise, another
muggy night is anticipated as temperatures should only dip into the
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Above-normal temperatures are expected to hang round through at
least Thursday of this week as an upper-level ridge sits over the
area. Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs around 100 to 106. Temperatures and heat indices on
the Fourth of July will remain elevated, with values in the upper
90s to near 104. The heat risk is forecast to be in the extreme
category for both San Angelo and Abilene, which means there is a
very high risk for heat-related illnesses on the fourth. There is
a slight chance of showers in the northern Big Country late
Thursday, but right now it looks like most of the precipitation
should remain to our north and west and there shouldn`t be impacts
to July Fourth festivities. The ridge will weaken over our area
starting Friday, as an upper low traverses over the Midwest and
breaks down the ridge. We could potentially see a weak front
Friday into Saturday, increasing rain chances and slightly
decreasing temperatures. Rain amounts are still uncertain at this
time, as models still vary on how far south the better rain
amounts will make it. The front along with the weakening ridge
will help to lower our temperatures a few degrees, putting them
closer to normal for Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Generally VFR conditions will continue to prevail across West
Central Texas terminals through Monday morning, although some
cloud cover in the 4k-6k range will continue this afternoon. South
to southeast winds around 10 knots will continue with occasional
gusts near 20 mph at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 101  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76 102  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   76 100  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  77 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       74  97  75 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07