116
FXUS64 KSJT 051025
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
525 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold
front moves through. The front will provide a focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop from north to south today,
primarily during the afternoon hours when the best coverage can be
expected due to daytime heating/instability. Although we are not
expecting severe storms today, the stronger storms will be capable
of producing gusty downburst winds. The airmass will be quite moist
today, which will contribute to heavy downpours with the stronger
storms and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall/localized
flooding. Temperatures will be coolest across the Big Country today,
where afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s
across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along
the I-10 corridor.

For tonight, will maintain low rain chances (20 to 40 percent), with
isolated to widely scattered showers/storms possible. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on
Saturday with the stalled frontal boundary acting as a focus for
convection. Temperatures will generally be below average, with
highs in the lower to mid 90s. The front washes out on Sunday as
low level south-southwesterly flow quickly resumes. This will
result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees under southerly winds and mostly sunny skies.

Still quite a bit uncertainty next week regarding both rainfall
chances and amounts as well as temperatures. Models bring another
front down into the area on Monday. The front will tap into some
low level moisture, with another round of isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible. Rain chances and temperatures for
Tuesday through Thursday will greatly depend on what eventually
happens with the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Latest track
forecast from the National Hurricane Center now brings the center
of Beryl across the south Texas coast near Brownsville.
Thereafter, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
eventual track as the remnants of the system move across Texas.
Overnight runs of the GFS and ECMWF show the cyclone lifting
northward and then northeastward across central and north Texas
keeping the heaviest rainfall to our east. Thus, confidence on
appreciable rainfall amounts for our area is low. Nevertheless,
with abundant moisture in place will maintain a slight chance to
chance of PoPs for much of the week.

Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on how much rain
and cloud cover we get, with the NBM on the cooler end of the
guidance compared to the MOS guidance. Currently have highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday through Thursday. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will sag through KABI this
morning, and across the reaming terminal this afternoon.
Scattered convection is expected across the terminals after 17Z
but confidence in coverage and timing is rather low. Will maintain
PROB30 groups for this potential this afternoon. No precipitation
is expected this evening, but could see some some isolated
convection develop near the KABI terminal after 06/06Z.
Currently, confidence remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  70  91  73 /  60  40  30  10
San Angelo  97  73  94  74 /  30  40  40  10
Junction    98  74  95  74 /  20  20  40  10
Brownwood   92  71  91  72 /  50  40  40  10
Sweetwater  89  70  92  73 /  50  40  30  10
Ozona       97  73  92  73 /  20  20  30  10
Brady       94  71  90  73 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24