411
FXUS64 KSJT 031853
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
153 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
West Central Texas through the next 24 hours. High temperatures
today will be a degree or two less hot than what we saw yesterday,
but still well above normal. Much of the Big Country and Concho
Valley are forecast to top out around 105, so have issued a Heat
Advisory for these locations from 1 PM through 7 PM. Elsewhere,
expect highs in the upper 90s to around 103. Breezy conditions are
again anticipated with south winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with
higher gusts, by mid to late morning. Expect overnight lows in the
mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A much needed pattern change is expected starting Friday as a trough
moves across the north central United States. A cold front will push
south into the area starting early Friday, bringing cooler
temperatures and rain chances. High temperatures on Friday could be
as low as the upper 80s in the Big Country and mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. The front, along with a few upper level disturbances,
could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Sunday. Precipitation amounts look to stay generally below half an
inch for Friday and the weekend, but we could see higher amounts
under isolated thunderstorms.

There is still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the rest of the
long term for both precipitation and temperatures. As of this
afternoon, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make landfall in Mexico,
just south of Texas. However, it is still in the realm of
possibilities that Beryl could turn further north into Texas. The
exact path of Hurricane Beryl will have a significant effect on
rainfall amounts, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. The
good news is, it looks like we`ll have a slight chance of rain for
next week even if Beryl takes the southern track rather than the
more northern one. Northwest flow aloft is expected to set up over
the area for the start of next week, allowing for upper-level
disturbances to move over the area, leading to low-end rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR next 24 hours. South winds gust to 18 to 21 KTS through
evening, then again mid to late Thursday morning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79 102  76  91 /   0   0  20  50
San Angelo  76 104  77  98 /   0   0  10  40
Junction    74 100  75  99 /   0   0   0  20
Brownwood   76 100  76  94 /   0   0  10  40
Sweetwater  78 103  75  91 /   0  10  30  40
Ozona       74  99  74  97 /   0   0   0  20
Brady       74  99  75  95 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04