003
FXUS64 KSHV 041145
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
645 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This morning`s upper-air analysis indicates that our region
remains greatly influenced by this stubborn high-pressure system
that has long overstayed it`s welcome. As a result, it is once
again going to be extremely hot today. Regardless, stay strong and
remember to not go quietly into the night and do not vanish
without a fight, "We`re going to live on! We`re going to survive!
Because today we celebrate our Independence Day!" Happy 4th of
July everyone! Like I mentioned above, today is going to be very
warm. Please please take precaution if you are outdoors for a long
time celebrating the day. And when the fireworks start popping
later in the night, continue to take precaution because right now
it is almost 3 am and still 84 degrees outside. Have a safe 4th of
July that is not overshadowed by heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

With the influence of the ridge aloft, afternoon temperatures will
quickly return to the upper 90s today. Wouldn`t be surprised is
some locations climbed above 100 degrees again today as we
outperformed some on Wednesday. Combine these temperatures with
the high humidity and we will see heat indices climb between 105
to 110 degrees or higher this afternoon. As a result, an Excessive
Heat Warning remains in effect today for most of the region with
a Heat Advisory in place for our far western zones of east Texas.
The current heat products are in place through 8:00 PM CDT this
evening. While it will remain very warm tomorrow across much of
the region, a frontal boundary and some thunderstorms will keep
heat index values in check or portions of the area. With the
drastic change in the location of any products for Friday, we will
wait till the current products expire to issue anything for
Friday.

Natures fireworks will be possible late this afternoon and into
the evening hours for some of our southern and eastern zones. Any
convection that does form will be very isolated in nature. As we
head further into the evening, showers and thunderstorms will
begin moving into our northern zones as the aforementioned frontal
boundary will begin to push into the region. This will be the
start of a much welcomed change in the pattern heading further
into the weekend. Thunderstorms should become more widespread
during the day Friday. While some of these storms could be strong
at times, it does not appear that we will be dealing with any
widespread severe weather at this time. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Moving into the weekend, the upper-level ridge that has plagued
our area for too long will have pushed off to the east and
somewhat become washed out from the large trough moving through
the central Plains. At the same time, the frontal boundary
mentioned above will dissect the center our region on Saturday,
bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.
Thunderstorm potential will remain in place across the region for
Sunday as the frontal boundary begins to lift back to the north.
These chances are more uncertain though as the GFS is keeping us
fairly dry through the day Sunday. Nonetheless, the unsettled
weather pattern appears to continue into next week.

Hurricane Beryl will begin to move into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend and should start to strengthen again as it moves towards
southern Texas and northeast Mexico. While this won`t have much of
a direct impact on our region, another disturbance back behind
Beryl could bring us a very active weather pattern through much of
next week. There does remain some uncertainty with all of this
forecast for next week as some of this precipitation will be
determined on the path of these tropical systems moving through
the Gulf. In addition to this much welcomed precipitation,
temperatures will reach much more manageable levels through most
of next week. I am talking highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
and lows actually making it back into the 70s. On top of that,
heat index values should remain below critical levels, however,
they will still be elevated and it will still feel like the 90s to
around 100 degrees, but that is better than 105 to 115 degrees.
Anywho, have a wonderful 4th of July and a wonderful weekend. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible between 04/18z-05/02z mainly east of a line from KELD, to
KSHV, to KAQV. KMLU would be the most likely TAF site to be
affected, but the spotty nature of the convection results in too
much uncertainty too prevail weather or VCTS in the forecast at
this time. VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites for the
next 24 hours, but some low clouds may move into Deep East Texas
and Central Louisiana late in the period. More scattered showers
and thunderstorms should spread southward into Southeast Oklahoma,
Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northeast Texas after 05/06z ahead
of an approaching cold front, but this second round of convection
should remain north of the TAF sites through the end of the
period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  81  97  77 /  10  10  50  30
MLU  97  78  95  74 /  30  20  70  30
DEQ  97  73  90  68 /  10  40  30  10
TXK  99  77  94  72 /  10  20  40  20
ELD  97  76  92  70 /  20  20  50  20
TYR  99  78  95  75 /   0  10  30  30
GGG  98  77  95  74 /   0  10  40  30
LFK  97  77  97  75 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-
     112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124-
     125-136-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09