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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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903 FXUS64 KSHV 021941 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 By this evening, the area of high pressure aloft will have moved very little from its position today. If anything, the area of ridging will only broaden westward into tomorrow, locking in place its continued influence on this streak of above average temperatures through this short term forecast period. Tonight`s low temperatures look to once again drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with stubborn surface level moisture yielding very little if at all by daybreak. As the upper level ridge continues to hold sway, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week, as temperatures soar back into the upper 90s, with some sites hitting or just exceeding the century mark. Stubborn humidity will continue, resulting in heat index values between 105 to 115 through the early evening, before temperatures back into the upper 70-s to lower 80s by daybreak Thursday. While upper level ridging will result in subsidence inhibiting widespread convection across the majority of the arkLaTex through the next two days or so, some more organized development tomorrow afternoon cannot be ruled out. Short range guidance suggests convective development consistent with a typical sea breeze pattern between 18Z and 00Z, with impacts possibly reaching as far as Lufkin, tX in the west and Monroe, LA in the northeast of the region. What convection does develop looks to dissipate rapidly by or after sundown. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Outdoor activities planned for the 4th of July will likely need to contend with conditions similar to those which have defined the afternoons thusfar this week: air temperatures reaching the upper 90s with triple digits possible, together with stubborn humidity resulting in feels like temperatures above 105 degrees once again. Precautions are advised to prevent heat-related illnesses, including but not limited to wearing loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, using hats and sunscreen, drinking plenty of water, and above all, limiting outdoor exposure as much as possible, with frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned spaces. The fireworks forecast is shaping up to be mostly favorable, with a slight chance of sea breeze type convection across portions of central Louisiana which should largely come to an end before dark Thursday evening. Our next major weathermaker looks to arrive overnight Thursday into Friday morning, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in our heat all week finally begins to shift off to the east enough to allow an upper level trough digging south over the Plains to swing its attendant surface frontal boundary into the region. Thunderstorms may begin before dawn for our northern zones, and look to spread south through the daylight hours, continuing for much of the weekend ahead, possibly breaking overnight Saturday before resuming in force on Sunday. This more unsettled pattern looks to continue into early next week, with greater PoPs over a larger area on a near-daily basis. In addition to supplying some needed rainfall, this activity will finally put a dent in our heat wave, with more seasonable highs in the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 60s to close the weekend and usher in the new work week. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 02/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon over all but portions of SCntrl AR/NE LA along and W of a stationary bndry extending from WCntrl and Srn AR into NE LA. Very isolated convection can not be ruled out this afternoon over Cntrl LA and adjacent sections of Deep E TX, but precludes mention for VCSH in for the LFK terminal attm. Any convection and cu field should diminish by sunset, with SKC expected overnight. A scattered stratocu field should again develop by mid to late morning, lifting into areas of cu by afternoon. A weak seabreeze should develop during the afternoon Wednesday and spread NNW into portions of Deep E TX/Cntrl and NE LA, just beyond the end of the 18Z TAF period. SSE winds 4-7kts this afternoon will diminish to 3-6kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 101 82 99 / 0 10 0 10 MLU 78 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 20 DEQ 76 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 10 TXK 80 101 80 99 / 0 10 0 10 ELD 77 99 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 TYR 80 99 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 79 99 78 97 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 77 97 77 97 / 10 20 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061- 071>073. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059- 070. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15