336
FXUS64 KSHV 302020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
320 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Nice little clusters of showers and thunderstorms are going from
SE OK across S AR and just edging into N LA now. We see spotty
convection farther south. All this activity is trying to
establish a little cool pool north, but lots of holes in that
cheese so far. The HRRR does a decent job of representing the
areas of concern and drifting southward into the evening as well.
This rain should make for a slightly cooler day tomorrow with heat
index 105 or less for at least S AR. Elsewhere, heat calculations
will generally be in the 106 to 110 range with another heat
advisory for Monday. We may see another warning upgrade if we end
up with some compressional heating tomorrow, but for now
considering current warning, we are sticking with another heat
advisory for Monday for our counties in OK/TX and all our LA
parishes, excluding S AR to some extent. Barring some decent
rainfall, it will be another night with some near record warmth
for lows at most locales, but some rain cooled areas will be
possible. Highs will be in the middle 90 range for most under
added clouds and the humidity will still running soupy, boosting
those HI numbers. The chance for more convection continues along
and south of I-20 for the most part on Monday and then dries up
going forward for a while. Lows tomorrow night should see the
benefit of the weak front with a little cooler range for lows in
the low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the 1027mb core stays in the
Great Lakes. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Much like this last little air mass, we are grazed by the
northeast winds briefly and see just one day and one night of
slightly cooler temps. Mid to late week will continue with mid to
upper 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s widespread once again.
The sea breeze will spread into the parishes under the building
upper high and not much else during midweek. The models are
trending closer to average for next weekend as a deeper and
stronger upper low edges another front down into our neck of the
woods. So model pops are in the 20-40 range again by the end of
the forecast period keeping back the triple digits perhaps. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Cumulus field currently in development may initially range from
high-end MVFR to low-end VFR but will lift to VFR through the
afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms most likely from TXK
to SHV to ELD and MLU through sunset. Any TSRA passage at these
terminals could result in briefly erratic wind speeds and
direction and as well as reduced vsbys. SCT-BKN ceilings may then
develop Monday morning across all terminals, especially the
northern and eastern terminals as a front approaches. Winds
generally W/NW today 5-8kts, becoming light and variable overnight
and shifting to the NE around 5kts Monday morning.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  96  77 100 /  20  40   0  10
MLU  76  94  72  97 /  20  20   0  10
DEQ  74  93  72  96 /  20  20   0   0
TXK  77  93  73 100 /  20  30   0   0
ELD  74  93  69  97 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  80  97  78 100 /  10  20   0   0
GGG  78  96  77  99 /  10  30   0  10
LFK  77  97  77  98 /  10  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     059-070>073.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059-
     070.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-018>022.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ017.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-
     112.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...23