155
FXUS64 KSHV 051829 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
129 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today`s high temperatures are going to be contingent on a number
of competing factors, specifically developing cloud cover,
potential showers and storms, and compressional heating ahead of a
surface boundary, coupled with stubbornly high dew points. Based
on the heating and moisture observed already this morning, have
elected to issue a new Heat Advisory for the southern and eastern
portions of the ArkLaTex, including Shreveport, Texarkana, Lufkin
and Monroe, in effect until 00Z Saturday, with the possibility of
expiring some counties and parishes early as convection develops
and heat indices drop off.

Otherwise, adjusted PoP grids to reflect the lack of development
seen thus far this morning, allowing for more coverage of
convection after 18Z and especially after 21Z as storms manage to
fire off. Still only outlooked in General Thunder at this time,
but will be monitoring closely, should the isolated storm or two
become stronger, potentially producing damaging wind gusts.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the 05/18Z TAF period,
although brief periods of MVFR cigs/reduced vsbys will be possible
this afternoon through early to mid evening in and near scattered
convection that is developing near and behind a weak sfc front and
various outflow bndrys. Have inserted VCTS into all terminals
except LFK for the afternoon, and tempoed thunder mention with the
potential for MVFR cigs, reduced vsbys, and wind gusts to 30+ kts.
This convection should eventually shift S into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA
by late afternoon/early evening before ending. In their wake, low
AC cigs and convective debris will linger over much of the region
through the evening/overnight hours, before thinning late. Patchy
FG and low MVFR/IFR cigs may develop after 09Z across portions of
Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, before lifting by mid-morning. Elsewhere,
areas of stratocu and brief MVFR cigs will be possible by mid and
late morning Saturday, before eventually scattering out for the
afternoon. VRB or NW winds 5-10kts this afternoon will become
light NE or Lt/Vrb after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  77  94  76 /  60  50  40  10
MLU  96  74  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
DEQ  94  69  92  67 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  97  72  94  71 /  40  20  20   0
ELD  93  70  92  69 /  50  20  20   0
TYR  95  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  10
GGG  95  73  93  73 /  50  30  40  10
LFK  96  75  92  74 /  40  40  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15