891
FXUS64 KSHV 021605
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1105 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No wholesale updates to the forecast package for this afternoon
are required at this time. Air temperatures are warming right on
schedule, and dew points remain within the expected range as of
the 16Z hour.

At this time, no changes to the existing heat products are
anticipated. However, careful attention will be paid to the heat
indices across southwest Arkansas to determine whether or not
Warning criteria are reached. If this looks imminent or begins to
occur, a decision to upgrade may need to be made.

Short range high resolution guidance continues to illustrate the
subsidence effects of the ridging overhead inhibiting the
development of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. However, given the abundant heat and oppressive
moisture, some heat-induced pop up showers and storms are not out
of the question entirely, particularly in the Toledo Bend areas of
Texas and Louisiana.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper-air analysis this morning once again features a large area
of high pressure centered over our region. This high pressure will
continue to influence the region through Wednesday as is slowly
begins to shift to the east. Surface analysis has a weak frontal
boundary located from far northeast Texas into central and
southeast Louisiana. This boundary will gradually wash out through
the day today, but not before potentially spawning some
thunderstorms this afternoon across our southern zones.

It is going to remain hot across the region today. Ambient
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 90s with some
locations reaching or exceeding 100 degrees by this afternoon.
Couple this with the higher humidity levels and we will see heat
index values ranging from around 105 degrees to around 113 for all
the region. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of our
southwest Arkansas counties and then Union Parish in Louisiana. In
these areas, heat index values will be between 105 and 109 degrees
this afternoon. The rest of the area is in an Excessive Heat
Warning as heat index values will reach or exceed 110 degrees. No
relief in the heat for Wednesday, as a matter of fact, Wednesday
could be slightly warmer than today. Excessive Heat Warning will
likely be issued areawide for Wednesday, however, due to a current
bug in our system, we will wait till later in the day to attempt
to issue that for tomorrow, or wait till our overnight package.
/33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

By Independence Day the center of the upper-level ridge will have
pushed a little farther to the east, although it will be somewhat
elongated by then and still extend into our area. That being said,
it looks like Independence Day will be hot across the region, with
afternoon highs once again ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Heat
index values on the 4th don`t look to be as extreme as what we
have seen and will see for the next day or two, however, they will
still reach dangerous levels and most likely require some sort of
heat product. The potential for any fireworks from nature will be
confined to our far southern zones from any sea-breeze convection
that can make it to our area.

Moving into the end of the week and into the weekend, a trough and
associated frontal boundary will begin to move into the region,
bringing a chance for more widespread rainfall across the region
for the weekend. Does this mean that it wont be hot? Not at all,
but it could give us a break in some heat products thanks to lower
humidity values. Eyes will then need to stay focused on the
tropics heading into next week. Right now, long range models don`t
have anything impacting our area, but could be close. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours at all
TAF sites. Light and variable winds are expected for the first few
hours of the period before becoming southeasterly by 02/18z with
sustained speeds remaining below 10 kts. Wind speeds should
diminish slightly after 03/00z and may continue to veer to the
south-southwest.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  82 100  81 /  10   0  10   0
MLU  98  78  98  77 /   0   0  20   0
DEQ  96  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  98  80 100  80 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  98  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
TYR  98  80  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  98  79  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  98  77  96  77 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061-
     071>073.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-
     070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09