029
FXUS64 KSHV 021750 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

No wholesale updates to the forecast package for this afternoon
are required at this time. Air temperatures are warming right on
schedule, and dew points remain within the expected range as of
the 16Z hour.

At this time, no changes to the existing heat products are
anticipated. However, careful attention will be paid to the heat
indices across southwest Arkansas to determine whether or not
Warning criteria are reached. If this looks imminent or begins to
occur, a decision to upgrade may need to be made.

Short range high resolution guidance continues to illustrate the
subsidence effects of the ridging overhead inhibiting the
development of widespread convection across the ArkLaTex this
afternoon. However, given the abundant heat and oppressive
moisture, some heat-induced pop up showers and storms are not out
of the question entirely, particularly in the Toledo Bend areas of
Texas and Louisiana.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 02/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon over all
but portions of SCntrl AR/NE LA along and W of a stationary bndry
extending from WCntrl and Srn AR into NE LA. Very isolated
convection can not be ruled out this afternoon over Cntrl LA and
adjacent sections of Deep E TX, but precludes mention for VCSH in
for the LFK terminal attm. Any convection and cu field should
diminish by sunset, with SKC expected overnight. A scattered
stratocu field should again develop by mid to late morning,
lifting into areas of cu by afternoon. A weak seabreeze should
develop during the afternoon Wednesday and spread NNW into
portions of Deep E TX/Cntrl and NE LA, just beyond the end of the
18Z TAF period. SSE winds 4-7kts this afternoon will diminish to
3-6kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  82 100  81 /  10   0  10   0
MLU  98  78  98  77 /   0   0  20   0
DEQ  96  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  98  80 100  80 /  10   0  10   0
ELD  98  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
TYR  98  80  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  98  79  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  98  77  96  77 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061-
     071>073.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-
     070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15