185
FXUS64 KSHV 022329
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

By this evening, the area of high pressure aloft will have moved
very little from its position today. If anything, the area of
ridging will only broaden westward into tomorrow, locking in place
its continued influence on this streak of above average
temperatures through this short term forecast period.

Tonight`s low temperatures look to once again drop into the upper
70s to lower 80s, with stubborn surface level moisture yielding very
little if at all by daybreak. As the upper level ridge continues to
hold sway, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week, as
temperatures soar back into the upper 90s, with some sites hitting
or just exceeding the century mark. Stubborn humidity will continue,
resulting in heat index values between 105 to 115 through the early
evening, before temperatures back into the upper 70-s to lower 80s
by daybreak Thursday.

While upper level ridging will result in subsidence inhibiting
widespread convection across the majority of the arkLaTex through
the next two days or so, some more organized development tomorrow
afternoon cannot be ruled out. Short range guidance suggests
convective development consistent with a typical sea breeze pattern
between 18Z and 00Z, with impacts possibly reaching as far as
Lufkin, tX in the west and Monroe, LA in the northeast of the
region. What convection does develop looks to dissipate rapidly by
or after sundown.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Outdoor activities planned for the 4th of July will likely need to
contend with conditions similar to those which have defined the
afternoons thusfar this week: air temperatures reaching the upper
90s with triple digits possible, together with stubborn humidity
resulting in feels like temperatures above 105 degrees once again.
Precautions are advised to prevent heat-related illnesses, including
but not limited to wearing loose-fitting, light-colored clothing,
using hats and sunscreen, drinking plenty of water, and above all,
limiting outdoor exposure as much as possible, with frequent breaks
in shaded or air-conditioned spaces.

The fireworks forecast is shaping up to be mostly favorable, with a
slight chance of sea breeze type convection across portions of
central Louisiana which should largely come to an end before dark
Thursday evening.

Our next major weathermaker looks to arrive overnight Thursday into
Friday morning, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in
our heat all week finally begins to shift off to the east enough to
allow an upper level trough digging south over the Plains to swing
its attendant surface frontal boundary into the region.
Thunderstorms may begin before dawn for our northern zones, and look
to spread south through the daylight hours, continuing for much of
the weekend ahead, possibly breaking overnight Saturday before
resuming in force on Sunday.

This more unsettled pattern looks to continue into early next week,
with greater PoPs over a larger area on a near-daily basis. In
addition to supplying some needed rainfall, this activity will
finally put a dent in our heat wave, with more seasonable highs in
the lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 60s to close the weekend
and usher in the new work week.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the
forecast period ending 04/00Z. Light and variable winds overnight
to become south and increase up to 8 kts on Wednesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81 101  82  99 /   0  10   0  10
MLU  78  99  78  97 /   0  20   0  20
DEQ  76  98  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  80 101  80  99 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  77  99  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
TYR  80  99  80  98 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  79  99  78  97 /   0  10   0   0
LFK  77  97  77  97 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-060-061-
     071>073.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059-
     070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ006.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>005-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05