143
FXUS64 KSHV 011750 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The current forecast is largely on track. The mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere continue to portray a ridge of high pressure
lending to synoptic scale subsidence. Meanwhile, low levels
continue to show abundant moisture and a weak boundary approaching
the area from the northeast. Given these conditions, still think
afternoon and evening convection will develop across the western
2/3rds of the CWA given some lift provided by the boundary amidst
an unstable environment. The heat advisory will also remain in
place as is, although areas in southwest Arkansas are still
expected to be close to heat advisory criteria.

BF/CK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure remaining
over our area, generally centered across north central Texas and
south central Oklahoma. The only appreciable change to this over
the next few days will the center of it will wobble to and fro
as it slowly shifts to the east. Meanwhile at the surface, a
frontal boundary will remain stalled out across portions of the
region today, generally from southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Louisiana. This will cause a larger gradient in afternoon high
temperatures. Behind the frontal boundary, highs will be in the
lower 90s, while the rest of the area will be in the mid to upper
90s. This should also limit our Max Apt T or heat index across
these areas. Due to this, we have left out many of our southeast
Arkansas counties from the Heat Advisory for today with the
exception of Miller and Little River. There is some potential that
we will see some Excessive Heat Warning criteria being met at
times today, but it seemed spotty enough to keep the Heat Advisory
going and not upgrade for today.

Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible across portions of the area thanks to the stalled out
frontal boundary. Similar to today, this should act as a starting
point for convection later this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. The location may differ some, with storms possible
into some of our east Texas counties. The potential for these
storms is another reason I have elected not to upgrade the Heat
Advisory as these could limit how "hot" we get. Hopefully we are
able to manage to get some precipitation today as any convection
for the rest of the week will generally only be from sea-breeze
convection along our southern zones. Tuesday will remain hot again
across the region, and there is some potential that areas not in
the Heat Advisory today will need to be included on Tuesday,
however, right now to avoid confusion, have left it as is and will
expand if needs be tonight. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Here is how the rest of the week is expected to pan out. Models
are in decent agreement that the center of the upper-level ridge
will slowly shift to the east through the week. So, moral of the
story is, this week is going to be hot with heat products likely
to be in place through much of the week. By Friday, the center of
the ridge should be more centered over the southeast CONUS, with
what is now Hurricane Beryl reaching the Yucatan Peninsula.
Current track has the center of Beryl going right through the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday
evening. Where it tracks from there is still up in the air, so
continue to follow the forecast for the latest information from
the National Hurricane Center.

Precipitation will be limited through much of the long term
period. The only exception will be from anything that can develop
from diurnal heating and then the sea-breeze convection across
our far southern zones. Right now it appears that our southern
zones will have the best potential for any precip on Wednesday and
Thursday. By Friday, as the center of the ridge is well east of
our area, this could allow for more widespread convection across
the region as a frontal boundary will push into the northern
portions of our area, leading to a more unsettled period into next
weekend. This could also lead to a brief break in the hot
temperatures for next weekend. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms have recently started
to form in a convergence zone running from north to south in East
TX, mainly along and south of I-20. Expect the coverage of at
least widely scattered showers and storms to increase over central
and western zones through the afternoon, potentially impacting
GGG, TYR, SHV, TXK, and LFK air spaces. Those latter areas have
VCTS in the TAFs through later this afternoon or early evening,
although TEMPO groups were included in GGG and LFK for early
through mid afternoon where potential for some impact is greater.
In general, expect storms to produce brief gusty and erratic winds
around or near their locations, although the potential for any
severe storms is quite low. Otherwise, ceilings will remain MVFR
for another hour or two in portions of the Arklamiss and could
potentially drop down that low in the middle of a thunderstorm
through the afternoon, but in general cu ceilings should range
from 3 to 6 kft. Expect convection to quickly dwindle this evening
with skies gradually clearing aside from residual high cirrus.
Very isolated patches of sub VFR visibilities or ceilings are
possible around and shortly after daybreak tomorrow, although the
potential for impacting any TAF site right now is too low to
include mention in the product. Winds at the surface will be
veering to the south tomorrow morning with convective coverage
likely very isolated tomorrow. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  79 100  81 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  95  72  98  77 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  93  72  96  75 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  96  75  99  79 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  93  69  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  98  78  99  79 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  97  77  99  78 /  30  10  10   0
LFK  96  77  98  77 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059-070.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...50