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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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618 FXUS63 KSGF 300524 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally dry and not as hot today. - Heat and humidity return on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Some lingering clouds remained across portions of the Ozarks this afternoon from early morning convection. Where clouds remained, temperatures lagged in the 80s early this afternoon while areas with little or no cloud cover were in the lower 90s. With dew points in the 70s, combined with the quickly warming temperatures, heat index values were in the 95 to 105 degree range at 1pm. The Heat Advisory that is in effect until 8 PM, looks on track an will remain until this evening for all of the Missouri Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas. Southerly flow will continue into this evening, which was helping bring the hot and sticky air into the area. This will also provide the fuel for potential strong to severe storms this evening into tonight as a cold front is forecast to move south through the region. Instability this afternoon was increasing with from 2500-5000 j/kg with ample DCAPE noted as well. As the front moves through and provides forcing, storms should develop quickly with the primary concern being damaging winds to 60mph, though isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms. CAMS are indicating development from 22-23z with storms diminishing in intensity by midnight. The front will continue to slide south through the overnight hours and is expected to be south of the region, into Arkansas by sunrise. Cooler air will filter into the area behind the front which will bring a much more comfortable, though brief, respite from the heat. Highs Sunday in the 80s and a drier airmass will be rather nice compared to today. A shortwave riding over the ridge across the center of the country, may bring some showers Sunday evening. If that occurs, areas west of I-49 would have the best shot at light rain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Upper ridging will make a return Monday with areas generally west of Highway 65 climbing to around 90 degrees. Areas to the east will see one more day of mild weather with highs in the 80s. By Tuesday and through the remainder of next week, including the 4th of July, temperatures will again become hot and humid. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on a daily basis as the upper ridge gets shunted to the southeast placing the region on the wester edge of the ridge and in southwesterly flow aloft. An upper level wave will move across southern Canada and drag a cold front into the plains and the Ozarks late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will bring the potential more rainfall into the weekend as the front stalls out across the area and slowly dissipates into Saturday. With this in mind, the 4th looks showery with some thunder possible though confidence is limited with rain chances only from 20-40%. Will monitor through the week to try and hone in the forecast for the holiday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the 06z TAFS, generally seeing high level mid/upper level clouds over the area from the thunderstorm complex, but in VFR conditions. May see some lower clouds in MVFR category towards morning to around mid morning, but for the most part should remain in VFR during this TAF period. A light and variable wind initially, will become northeasterly towards morning behind a frontal boundary as high pressure moves in. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011 July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record Low Temperatures: July 1: KVIH: 56/1951 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 29: KSGF: 80/1936 July 2: KSGF: 76/1933 July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Nelson