385
FXUS63 KSGF 041038
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for far southern Missouri
  today where afternoon Heat Index values range from 105-109
  degrees.

- There is a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of the area late this afternoon into the evening
  hours. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard.

- Storms today will produce efficient rainfall rates, producing
  a risk of localized flooding and flash flooding.

- Cooler conditions return Friday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Morning Storms:
Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of storms across eastern
Kansas barreling into Missouri early this morning. These storms
have produced wind gusts of 70-80 mph. Scattered convection out
ahead of the line has remained sub- severe and eaten up some of
the instability. Forward propagating vectors and 0-3 km bulk
shear vectors suggest this line should continue to track east
along the instability gradient into the early morning hours, and
continuing to weaken as it does so. Highest storm chances this
morning are along and north of I-44. Gusty winds up to 50 mph
will be the primary hazard has they enter our CWA.

Precipitable water values northward of 2" and a very moist
airmass will allow for very efficient rainfall rates under any
storms. However, recent guidance has shifted the heaviest
precipitation axis slightly north from previous indications.
Specifically, the 00Z HREF LPMM depicts a pockets of 4-6 inches
of rainfall somewhere between the Highway 54 and I-70 corridor.
The Flood Watch has been maintained given the potential for
training thunderstorms.

Afternoon/Evening Heat and Storms:
Earlier convection will shift east out of the forecast area in
the morning. Beyond that, hi-res guidance even suggests partial
clearing during the late morning and early afternoon hours,
particularly across far southern Missouri near the Arkansas
border. Therefore, temperatures were nudged closer to the NBM
75th percentile, maxing out in the mid 90s with afternoon Heat
Index Values in the 105-109 range. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for these areas from 12-9 PM today.

Clearing and surface heating will contribute to steep low-level
lapse rates and increased destabilization across southern
Missouri throughout the afternoon. As an upper-level trough over
the northern Plains gradually shifts east, a southwest to
northeast oriented surface boundary will set up over the area.
CAMs depict convective initiation across Oklahoma by mid-
afternoon shifting east into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri by early evening. Southwest mean flow relative to the
boundary would support a cluster storm mode with embedded
smaller line segments. Severe wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard, with hail to the size of quarters also possible
given the robust updrafts. The tornado threat appears low given
modest and veering 850 mb winds and would likely be limited to
boundary/outflow interactions. This activity appears diurnally
driven, and the severe threat likely winds down after 10 PM. The
Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight risk for severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Cooler temperatures will return Friday into next week with NBM
percentile data supporting highs in the 80s each day.

Our next-best rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday as
additional upper-level energy digs through the Plains. There are
some indications of MCS development across the northern Plains,
and this activity may track into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri, however, confidence in any details remains low this
far out. Precipitation chances range from 40-60%.

Ensembles develop deep upper-level ridging across the western
U.S. early next week. Precipitation chances remain low
(generally 25% or less) through much of the work week given the
lack of any strong forcing signal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The southern end of a line of showers may briefly impact the SGF
site at the start of the TAF period; otherwise, VFR conditions
are likely through the afternoon hours with partially clearing
skies. Additional scattered storms will likely develop along a
surface front after 00Z this evening before exiting shortly after
06Z.

Southwest winds will shift to the northwest with the passage of
the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:


July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ093-095>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Nelson