Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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413 FXUS63 KSGF 290749 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sub-severe precipitation in the north ending through the early morning. Localized flash flooding possible as rain trains over the same areas. - Heat Advisory in effect today with Heat Index values of 100 to 110. - Storm chances return this evening with a Marginal risk for severe winds. - Hot and rainy next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Convection is currently making its way through out northernmost counties this morning. We issued one Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Benton county, but this activity has largely remained sub-severe and is expected to continue to as it sweeps east. The only potential remaining hazards with this system are low-end wind damage (40-50 mph) and the risk of flooding as the rain trails over the same areas moving from west to east. Radar estimates are showing up to 2" has fallen on the western border of the CWA, tapering off to the east where precipitation is ongoing. We will be keeping an eye on St. Claire, Benton, and Hickory counties as well as counties to the east for the potential for flooding throughout the night. Amendment, as of 2 a.m.: a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for northern St. Claire county. As we head into the day Saturday, southerly flow and mostly clear skies will allow us to warm up quite a bit. We`ve issued a Heat Advisory for the whole CWA from 11 a.m. until 8 p.m. because of expected Heat Index values of 100 to 105. There is a gradient with the hottest temperatures in the south, but everywhere will feel icky. Storm chances return this evening as a low to the southwest joins forces with the residual troughing from the low passing to the far northeast and a cold front swings through. There is some low-end severe potential with this activity in the form of gusty winds and hail, but moreso wind. Coverage is also expected to be pretty sparse (isolated to widely scattered), resulting in PoPs largely less than 50% through the evening and overnight. Rain gradually ends in the south throughout the morning Sunday. Thanks to the frontal passage, Sunday will be "cooler" with more normal highs in the 80s. Get out and enjoy this weather, folks! It will be short-lived. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Who could`ve guessed it: high pressure and intense ridging are back to start the week, and with it the heat. Monday won`t be too bad for most, with those in the east only feeling temperatures in the low 80s, but those in the west nearing Heat Index values of 100. Tuesday will be worse, with widespread Heat Index values up to 105 and patchy areas up to 110. Heat headlines may be needed. The next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday night as a deep low pressure system swings a cold front through the Ozarks. Long term models are showing that this front becomes stationary and lays west- to-east across the area, allowing rain to continue through Wednesday. A second upper-level low pressure system looks to move through pretty quickly behind the first, trading off one cold front for another on Thursday morning. As of now, rain chances last all through the 7 day period. We`ll have to see how that actually plays out. Despite the rain chances, heat hangs on through at least Thursday with HI values over 100 every day. This seems to be possible, in my opinion, due to the degree of separation between our area and the pressure centers. The low pressure systems are way the heck in Canada, and the troughing just barely manages to extend south far enough to bring lift for rain. Unfortunately, we`re not able to experience very robust troughing, and upper-level flow remains almost zonal. Therefore, in a stroke of unluckiness, we`re looking at both wet humid weather and very high temperatures. Yay. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Storms are moving into the northwest this evening capable of 50-60 mph winds. They should remain north of the TAF sites, but included PROB30 for SGF and JLN beginning at 9Z. Some LLWS is possible at JLN around this time. Otherwise, VFR CIG/VIS for the period with winds shifting from southerly to westerly to northerly. More storm chances later on this evening, but generally PROB30 and less through 6Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011 July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record Low Temperatures: July 1: KVIH: 56/1951 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 29: KSGF: 80/1936 July 2: KSGF: 76/1933 July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson CLIMATE...Nelson