841
FXUS63 KSGF 021947
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat
  indices of 95 to 110. The highest heat indices and threat for
  heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from late tonight through
  early Friday morning. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for
  damaging winds from some of these storms on Wednesday and the
  Fourth of July.

- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms will also result in a Slight
  Risk (2/4) for flash flooding on Wednesday with a Marginal
  Risk (1/4) for Thursday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon
  into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper level analysis shows an upper level ridge over the eastern
U.S, with its ridge axis extending from the Mississippi valley into
the Ohio valley. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough situated over the
Rockies is moving east into the Great Plains. Closer to the surface,
a north-south stationary front over Kansas this morning has pushed
east over Missouri as a warm front, bringing moist unstable air into
the region. As such, temperatures today will climb into the upper
90s in Western Missouri, reaching the low 90s further east. With
dewpoints behind the front in the low 70s, today will be hot and
humid. Because of this, a Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 P.M.
for our western counties, generally west of the Highway 65
corridor, as heat indices will range between 100 and 108.
Thunderstorms are not expected today, as there will not be
enough lift/forcing to reach our convective temperature
thresholds.

Tonight, as the trough to our west continues to push east into the
Great Plains region, the ridge over our area will flatten out, and
flow over our area will become more westerly to west-southwesterly.
A northeast-southwest oriented cold front from central Kansas across
northwest Missouri will begin to drop to the southeast.
Thunderstorms will develop on this boundary overnight. Most of the
strongest storms should develop to the north of our CWA, where
instability is higher. Storms which do move into our area are
expected to be non-severe owing to the lower instability. However,
precipitable water vapor is consistently above 2", making any storms
which do reach us very efficient rain producers. Localized heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be the biggest hazards in our
northern CWA, where precipitation chances are highest(40-65%).
Precipitation chances decrease further south. Lows tonight will be
in the low to mid 70s.

Moving into Wednesday afternoon, solar heating will bring increased
instability. With the moisture here to stay and adequate energy from
the upper-level pattern, scattered thunderstorms are possible
(30-60% chance). The Storm Prediction Center has most of our
CWA in a slight risk of severe storms (Level 2 of 5), with
strong, damaging winds as the primary severe hazard.
Precipitable water vapor continues to be high (roughly 2")
during this time, so both localized heavy rainfall and flooding
are threats. High temperatures on Wednesday are dependent on
cloud cover and how much convection develops. A Heat Advisory
has been issued for our southern tier of counties along the
Arkansas border from 11 A.M to 8 P.M, as heat indices are
expected to exceed 105 degrees. As confidence increases in
temperature forecasts, the heat advisory may expand. Currently,
highs in the mid 90s are expected for said southern counties in
the heat advisory, while highs elsewhere range from the mid 80s
to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Beginning Wednesday night into Thursday morning, an upper-level
shortwave trough will move through the area. Thus, moving into
Independence Day, we will be unable to declare independence from
thunderstorm chances (30-70%). By the dawn`s early light,
thunderstorms across central Missouri will be producing locally
heavy rainfall, so localized flooding is a threat. Thursday night
into Friday morning, shear and instability are high enough to support
severe weather. The SPC again has our entire CWA in a slight
risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Depending on cloud
cover and the amount of convection, heat headlines will be
possible again in our southern counties. Highs are currently set
in the high 80s to low 90s for most of our area, with highs in
the mid 90s by the Arkansas border.

Some showers may linger Friday morning, but Friday is expected to be
dry otherwise, as an area of high pressure at the surface moves over
our area. This will bring cooler and drier conditions to our area,
as highs only reach into the 80s through Saturday. Precipitation
chances return late Sunday night into Monday as an upper level
trough moves over our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will persist through tonight. Surface winds will
remain gusty out of the south this afternoon with gusts in the
25-30 knot range around Joplin.

Surface winds will diminish this evening however low level wind
shear will develop across southern Missouri by 06 UTC as a low
level jet stream strengthens over the region. Low level wind
shear will diminish by 13 UTC on Wednesday.

An approaching cold front will then bring the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region starting
Wednesday morning. We have opted to include a PROB30 group for
Joplin and Springfield to cover this potential. Brief MVFR and
IFR visibilities can be expected with any storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011




Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ097-
     101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Nelson