437
FXUS61 KRNK 010524
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
124 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes today, bringing less
humid air. Dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday.
Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July, along
with a chance for storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Humidity lowers today.

Getting a few light returns on radar over the piedmont and
portions of southwest VA, along the last vestiges of the front
and higher humidity. Anticipate for lower humidity to slide in
from the northwest through the morning with clearing skies. Fog
may be an issue across portions of southside VA into the NC
piedmont and across the river valleys in the mountains, but
latest trends keep it isolated/patchy.

High pressure will bring a change in airmass today. A relief for
most from the high dewpoints. Dewpoints are expected to fall at
least 20 degrees, with some 40s possible by mid to late
afternoon. Temperatures will also come down...a pleasant way to
start the first day of July, with mainly sunny skies. Highs will
will be close to or about 5 degrees below normal, with mid to
upper 70s/80 in the mountains, to lower to mid 80s east.

Tonight, a few deeper valley locations like Burkes Garden and
Lewisburg, WV could sneak into the 40s, but most Will have 50s.
May be able give that A/C a rest.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Heat ramps up heading towards Independence Day

The first half of next week will be characterized by surface high
pressure an intensifying subtropical ridge growing out of the
southern plains and covering most of eastern and southern CONUS.
This will result in daily increases in temperature as well as
dewpoint. Highs on Monday will grow from the mid 80s/ upper 70s, and
become 80s and low 90s by Wednesday July 3. Summer will make its
presence known. All of this ridging and high pressure will keep
skies clear and prevent shower formation, so shade and remaining
indoors will be the only  reprieve from the heat. This period of
high temperatures and no cloud cover will only serve to worsen the
abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions we`re experiencing in
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Independence Day hot with potential for storms

2: Unsettled second half of the week

Independence Day (Thursday) will likely be the hottest day of the
week, and even  the hottest of the season so far. Highs east of the
Blue Ridge will be well into the 90s. Heat indices towards central
VA and Southside VA will likely exceed 100F for a few hours in the
afternoon Thursday and Friday. At the same time a front looks to
finally break through the ridging over the southern CONUS, bringing
the next shot of showers and storms since this weekend. Following
the ridge weakening and surface high pressure being displaced,
several waves with indeterminate timing will keep showers and storms
in the forecast from Thursday on through the weekend. Timing of
showers will be monitored closely as we forecast for holiday
activities. Confidence is increasing for stormy conditions on
Independence Day to potentially disrupt activities. After
Independence Day, temperatures could moderate a bit, but still
expecting temperatures and heat indices well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR expected through the period, though some MVFR fog
possible at DAN/BLF/LWB and BCB depending on how quickly the dry
air moves in vs temps. For now have tempo 3-5sm.

A wind shift will take place this morning, becoming
northerly...and remaining out of the north or northeast
Monday... generally 10 kts or less. A few gusts 15-20kts are
possible east of the mountains.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Tuesday-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across
the area. Storm chances increase by Thursday into Friday ahead
of a front so sub-VFR possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM/WP