183
FXUS61 KRNK 020621
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
221 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather
through Wednesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the
4th of July, along with a chance for storms for the latter half
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high in near normal temperatures today.

2) Dry weather continues.

It is a mostly clear night with high pressure centered over NY
State, and extending over the Mid Atlantic region. This hybrid
wedging will continue to build down along the spine of the
Appalachians this morning before shifting its center off the
southern New England coast tonight. This will allow northerly
winds this morning to turn easterly today and more southeasterly
tonight.

Aloft, ridging builds in with rising heights. 850mb temperatures
increase, especially over the mountains. This combined with
sunny skies will result in mid to upper 80s over the mountains,
and upper 80s to low 90s for the Piedmont. It will remain
relatively dry and comfortable feeling as far as humidity for
today. Expect some passing cirrus, but certainly no showers.

Tonight`s lows will be in the 50s to low 60s, with another night
of moderate radiational cooling. May see some increase in clouds
over the Piedmont as moisture will be on the uptick, with an
increase in relative humidity there as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Increasingly hot through the workweek

2: Storms return Thursday on Independence Day

Surface high pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast
Wednesday. As this system moves off the coast, southeast flow
will increase, bring Atlantic moisture into the area and
slowly raise the humidity levels. Temperatures Wednesday will
run a few degrees above normal with highs in the 80s across the
mountains and upper 80s to lower 90s in the foothills and
piedmont.

A subtropical ridge will move east over the southeastern states
Thursday July 4th. This system has a history of bring sweltering
heat and humidity to the area it covers. High temperatures
Thursday will range from the mid to upper 80s west of the Blue
Ridge and low to mid 90s east. These temperatures are around
5F-8F warmer than normal. Heat index values will run in the
97F-103F range in the east and upper 80s to mid 90s west for a
few hours in the afternoon. A disturbance tracking on the
northern rings of this ridge could bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area, disrupting Independence Day
celebrations and fireworks. The highest probability of storms
are north of Highway 460.

Hot and humid conditions continue into Friday with another round
of afternoon and evening storms. The highest probability of
storms will be along and west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled with storms into early next week

2: Heat and humidity sticks around this weekend

The subtropical ridge is expected to move off the southeast
coast this weekend. A cold front will move across the
mountains and stall over the piedmont Saturday. This boundary
will be the focus for areawide showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Hot and humid conditions remain through the weekend.
Temperatures cool off a bit Monday and Tuesday, but the
humidity will remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread VFR is expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Only
exception may be some late night fog along the rivers within the
mountain valleys.

Winds were light and variable this morning, but should have an
easterly component today, becoming more SE tonight as high
pressure to our north moves SE and offshore. Speeds should
generally stay at 5 to 10 kts, lower during the overnight hours.

Confidence in the above scenario is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Terminals in the area should remain VFR with high pressure
nearby through Wednesday night/early Thursday. MVFR conditions
may develop by Thursday morning, with an increase in TSRA/SHRA
chances Thursday through Saturday ahead of a front. Ceilings
will lower to IFR/LIFR during this period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/PM