043
FXUS61 KRNK 021811
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather
through Wednesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the
4th of July, along with a chance for storms for the latter half
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Temperatures climb again for Wednesday.

2) No rain expected.


Skies will be mostly clear through the remainder of the day
today, overnight and most of Wednesday due to surface high
pressure sliding slowly to our northeast, and a powerful
subtropical ridge pushing even further northeast out of the
southern plains. This will also lead to increased heat and
moisture in the area. Highs Wednesday mostly in the 80s for
mountain areas, and just pushing into the 90s in the Piedmont,
Southside and central VA. Dewpoints in the mid 60s will start to
make it feel like a sticky heat Wednesday, while the previous
few days have been dry enough to avoid that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
... As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat index values potentially exceeding advisory criteria Friday.
2. Afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could potentially
bring locally damaging winds.

Model ensembles show high confidence that the anomalously strong
upper level ridge over our region is slightly flattened late this
week as an upper level trof moves east from the northern plains into
the western Great Lakes by Friday evening.

Despite this, a deepening southwest flow by Friday will push 850mb
temps several(2-3+)standard deviations above normal, especially on
Friday.  Forecast high temperatures on Friday, generally following
the NBM, will be within 2-5 degrees of record highs for most
locations on Friday (See climate section below for record highs
Friday and Saturday).

These abnormally warm temperatures combined with PWAT values
climbing 1-2 standard deviations above normal for both Thursday and
Friday will lead to potentially dangerous heat index values east of
the Blue Ridge, especially on Friday and will highlight this threat
in the HWO.

Another by-product of the flattening upper level ridge will be weak
upper level disturbances emanating from northern plains/western
Great Lakes upper level trof. These disturbances will help spark
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show
the potential for long and skinny CAPES with a fairly healthy spread
in sfc dew points and temps, creating an environment conducive for
locally damaging winds and locally heavy downbursts of rain.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Confidence remains high for above normal temperatures through the
period with the warmest day on Saturday.

2. Unsettled weather persists through the long term period with
afternoon/evening storms possible each day.

The CPC Cluster Analysis Tools indicate above average confidence in
the upper level pattern through Sunday in advance of an upper level
trof in the central U.S., with confidence with the location and
amplitude of the trof falls Monday and Tuesday.

850mb temps continue be 1-2 standard deviations above average on
Saturday with NBM forecast high temps still well into the 90s east
of the Blue Ridge with heat index values nearing advisory criteria
in the far east. With the model ensembles in good agreement that an
upper level trof sweeps through the northeast late Saturday/Saturday
night allowing a surface boundary will move into our area, which may
bring us the best chance for storms in the long term period.

Forecast soundings show fairly robust DCAPE values on Saturday and
even Sunday, suggesting storms will have the potential for damaging
winds.

Precip chances on Sunday are highest across the VA southside and NC
piedmont where the surface boundary is likely to stall and
temperatures may be a degree or two cooler, but still well above
average.

As upper level heights build back on Monday, PWAT anomalies also
increase meaning scattered afternoon storms are possible anywhere
across our forecast area with the continued threat for isolated
damaging winds.  The Colorado State Machine-Learning Probabilities
Prediction Page keeps some risk for severe weather in our area each
day through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread VFR with limited mid to high deck clouds through the
next 24 hours. Winds will be light, generally southeast to east.
No precipitation expected.

Confidence in the above scenario is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Terminals in the area should remain VFR with high pressure
nearby through Wednesday night/early Thursday. MVFR conditions
may develop by Thursday morning, with an increase in TSRA/SHRA
chances Thursday through Saturday ahead of a front. Ceilings
will lower to IFR/LIFR during this period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...SH/VFJ