126
FXUS61 KRNK 081747
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary wavers over the region into midweek before
another front tracks in from the west by late in the week. It
will remain unseasonably warm and humid with daily chances for
showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

    - Keeping higher chance of storms over the southern VA/NW NC
      area this afternoon/evening.
    - Heat/humidity increases Tuesday, with heat indices above
      100 over portions of the piedmont and foothills.

Keeping higher pops, but still mainly chance 30-50% over
southern VA into NC this afternoon along better theta-e boundary
and low level convergence. Still looking at slow moving
showers/storms with high pwats which could lead to localized
flooding.

Expect the showers/storms to erode going toward midnight with
patchy fog and muggy temps overnight.

Tuesday, not much change, though the humidity will be slightly
higher and with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s east
of the mountains, a few areas could see close to 105 degrees, so
am planning on heat advisory over portions of the VA/NC
piedmont for Tue afternoon.

Storms will be widely scattered once again with best coverage
over the southern Blue Ridge and adjacent areas into the NC
foothills. Have added heavy rain as well in the weather as again
slow moving storms with pwats 1.7-2.2 inches will lead to
rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Daily shower and storm chances with greatest coverage on
Wednesday.

Ample moisture advection from the south to southwest is progged to
phase with the same upper trough that picks up the remnants of TC
Beryl. While the remnant low center is set to track NEWD across the
TN and Ohio Valleys, the CWA will still be in a very moist airmass
with PWATs looking to be over 2 inches for a large portion of the
area on Wednesday. While the shear params look to be pretty low,
there could be some decent instability aided with daytime heating in
such a moist environment, so not anticipating much in the form of
organized convection but could have some strong pulse storms
with hydrometeor loading and enhanced downdrafts/microbursts.
Prior to convection, some heat indices could get close to
advisory levels of 105 mainly in the Piedmont.

The upper shortwave further ejects the Beryl remnants into New
England for Thursday, though we stay in the eastern part of the
longwave trough and associated SW flow aloft, along with some
proximity to an elongated moisture axis near the Piedmont. Will
maintain some chance to likely pops for shower and storm
development.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Some increased shower and storm activity for Friday, then gradual
heating and mainly daytime driven precip for the weekend.

Upper trough looks to have some dampening by Friday, which allows
for the moisture axis to shift westward and build more into the CWA.
Have therefore a large portion of the area with likely to
categorical pops. By the weekend, the upper flow should shift to
more zonal so temps look to moderate a bit warmer each day along
with mainly chance pops for general diurnally driven convection in a
typical summertime environment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Monday...

Keeping VCTS in all terminals except LWB this afternoon and will
amd as necessary. Overall VFR. Most storms will fade this
evening with fog developing in the valleys late tonight, so have
LIFR at LWB and MVFR to IFR at BCB/BLF.

Low clouds/fog erode by 13-14z with VFR through 18z Tuesday.

Above average confidence on wind but average on cig/vsby and
storms.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect the pattern to stay humid with daily chance of storms
mainly afternoon/evening through the week. Fog at night
possible. Mainly VFR outside storms and fog/low stratus
mornings.


&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 520 AM EDT Monday...

Records for the warmest low temperatures may be set at
Blacksburg on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week so those records
have been listed here.

Monday 07/08/2024
Site  MaxT Year    Warm Low Year
KBLF    93 2012    71 1977
KDAN   103 2012    78 1930
KLYH   101 2012    75 2022
KROA   102 2012    77 2012
KRNK    96 1988    70 1941


July 9th
Site  MaxT Year   Warm Low Year
KBLF    92 2007    75 1994
KDAN   103 1977    76 1987
KLYH   102 1936    74 1992
KROA   101 1936    77 1992
KRNK    97 1988    67 1939

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

KFCX Radar will be inoperative until the technicians can work on
on replacing the defective part by late Tuesday or possibly Wednesday.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...WP
EQUIPMENT...WP