411
FXUS61 KRNK 011920
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
320 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather
through Wednesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the
4th of July, along with a chance for storms for the latter half
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Low humidity.

2) Pleasantly cool tonight.

High pressure continues to build into the forecast area from
the north providing significantly lower dewpoints. Once we get
passed the peak heating of the day the temperature should tumble
quickly given the lack of moisture in the air. Clear skies will
allow for good radiational cooling tonight, lows dipping into
the 40s in the mountain valleys, and 50s in the piedmont.
Guidance for Burkes Garden is 43 degrees for a low temperature.
It should be a very good night to give the A/C a rest and open
some windows.

Tuesday will feature another dry day under sunny skies and low
dewpoints. After a cool start, it should heat up fairly quickly
with afternoon highs near the seasonal norm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Increasingly hot through the week

2: Storms return Thursday on Independence Day

A strong subtropical ridge slowly moving east from the Southern
Plains will extend its influence over our region throughout the
middle of this week. By Thursday temperatures will have risen well
above normal, and humidity will have returned as well. This is
likely to result in heat indices near central Virginia in excess of
100F on Independence Day. Wednesday highs in the 80s for most and
just into the 90s in Southside. Independence Day will feel almost
sweltering pumping highs into the mid to upper 80s for all but the
highest reaches of the mountains in our area, and into the upper 90s
toward central VA (Lynchburg, Danville, etc). No rain is expected
Wednesday. A front will begin to break down the ridging and force it
east, bringing a return of showers and storms for Thursday afternoon
and evening. Confidence in storms in that timeframe is increasing,
and may put a damper of firework related plans.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Unsettled with storms through the weekend

2: Heat and humidity sticks around

A subtropical ridge advecting warm humid air into the area will
continue to slide east while simultaneously weakening over the
weekend. At the same time, a front will wash out or stall over the
Mid-Atlantic, allowing a few waves of energy to pass along it and
maintain an unsettled environment with scattered showers and storms
through the weekend.

Until the aforementioned ridge moves offshore, it will continue to
be hot and humid. This will likely be the case until Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Widespread VFR is expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Only
exception may be some late night fog along the rivers within the
mountain valleys.

Winds will be out of the north or northeast...generally 10 kts
or less.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Tuesday-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across
the area. Storm chances increase by Thursday into Friday ahead
of a front so sub-VFR possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM