375
FXUS61 KRLX 011843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm
for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-
stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Surface high pressure will traverse north of the region today
and tonight, resulting in a beautiful start to the work week.
At present, fair weather Cu has largely dissipated across the
region, with near wall to wall sunshine expected for the rest of
the day outside a bit of high level clouds later this evening.
High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 70s across
the lowlands, with mid 60s to low 70s in the mountains.

A chilly night is ahead across the forecast area given mostly
clear skies and relatively light boundary layer flow. Given
afternoon mixing, did tweak overnight temperatures down across
much of the forecast area to ~ 10th percentile of central
guidance, if not slightly lower in some areas. This translates
into upper 40s and 50s for the lowlands, with 40s in the
mountains. A few of the typically colder mountain valleys could
dip into the upper 30s. River valley steam fog is anticipated
late tonight in some areas, but don`t anticipate it being overly
widespread.

Return flow on Tuesday results in a significant warmup across
the region amid continued dry weather and some fair weather Cu.
High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s across
the lowlands, but humidity remains rather low by early July
standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday into Thursday.

An upper level ridge will be present over the southeastern US while
a low traverses central Canada. High pressure should allow dry
weather to persist into Wednesday morning before ridging
compresses south and a shortwave pivoting around the outskirts
of the upper low steers a cold front towards the Middle Ohio
Valley.

Chances of rain and storms are expected to spread northwest to
southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as
the front stalls in the vicinity of the northern CWA border.
Isolated strong to severe storms could be possible mainly along
and west of the Ohio River Wednesday evening. With precipitable
water values climbing to 2 or more inches, heavy downpours are
also likely to accompany storms and could eventually lead to
localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas or locations
that are impacted by multiple storms late Wednesday or Thursday.

Temperatures warm above normal on Wednesday, with mid 70s to upper
80s expected for the mountains and 90s in the lowlands. While
still rather warm, clouds and precipitation should keep
Thursday`s highs a few degrees lower than the previous day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled late week into the weekend.
* Temperatures remain near to above normal through early next week.

The long term forecast period starts out with a frontal boundary
lingering just north of the CWA while a low and upper shortwave
trough depart the Central Plains. This system tracks into the Great
Lakes region on Friday, lifts the stalled boundary to the north as a
warm front, and then ushers a cold front across the area this
weekend. High pressure may slide in at the surface early next week,
however, daytime heating and shortwave energy passing overhead could
still support some afternoon showers and storms.

Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through early
next week, with highs ranging from 80s to 90s in the lowlands and
mid 70s to upper 80s along the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period across
much of the area. The one exception will be with patchy valley
fog tonight, primarily across the river valleys, with the potential
for MVFR/IFR restrictions late tonight at EKN. VCFG fog has been
coded into CRW/PKB for steam fog from associated nearby rivers.
Any fog that develops overnight lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z on
Tuesday, with a bit of fair weather Cu developing by late morning.

North or northeast surface flow is expected today, with gusts
of 15-20 kts possible through early this evening. Calm or light
southeast flow is expected tonight, with southeast flow
continuing on Tuesday. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible late
tonight into Tuesday in/near the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...GW