250
FXUS61 KRLX 290625
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid today with storm potential. Severe
storms and heavy rain are possible today/Sunday. A cold front
crosses Sunday. Dry the new work week, becoming hot.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Friday...

No changes of import at this time this warm night.

As of 800 PM Friday...

After highs in the lower 90s today, lowland temperatures had
barely dipped below 90 F as of 800 PM. Isolated showers did
eventually pop up in the Tug Fork area.

As of 110 PM Friday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

While most of the area should remain dry, a few showers or storms
could sneak into the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. A
frontal boundary is then expected to lift up through the area
as a low migrates across the northern US and southern Ontario
late today into tonight. The passage of this front could bring
additional precipitation into the area overnight before the low
continues northeast and directs a cold front towards the area
on Saturday.

Models point towards a break in activity early Saturday, then
chances of showers and storms increase for the afternoon and
evening as warm, moist air flows into the area ahead of the
approaching cold front. Model soundings project moderate to
strong instability develops by late afternoon, along with
around 30+ kts of shear, and DCAPE values in the vicinity of
1000 J/kg. The best potential for isolated to scattered severe
storms is expected to be in the late afternoon through the
evening. While damaging winds will be the primary concern, there
is also a non-zero risk for tornadoes or hail.

Heavy downpours should also accompany storms as precipitable
water values reach 1.5 to 2 inches. Widespread flooding is not
anticipated; however, poor drainage areas or locations impacted
by multiple storms could experience a localized high water issue
or two.

Temperatures for tonight are expected to be warm, with lows
remaining in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs for Saturday rise back
towards mid 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s
along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

A cold front associated with a low moving across the Great
Lakes will be exiting the area toward the east to start this
period off on Sunday morning. Some shower and storm activity
will be possible during the day time on Sunday with some strong
to severe storms possible before the front kicks out.

Looking at soundings there is plenty of CAPE under partly
cloudy skies with no CIN meaning prolonged updrafts with enough
upper level wind support and modest wind shear of 30KT+ could
promote some long duration storms. DCAPE is solid along with
high PWATs and mid to upper level moisture which will promote
heavy downpours that could lead to localized water issues,
especially in low lying or flood prone areas.

The main threats seem to be damaging wind and heavy downpours.
WPC has us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall and SPC
has us in a marginal threat for severe storms. This will mainly
be for the afternoon until the front exits toward the mountains
by the evening.

Temperatures will go from slightly above seasonable on Sunday
to a more less than seasonable and cooler day on Monday with
colder air filtering behind the front along with broad high
pressure building in and supported by upper level ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

High pressure dominates into the long term period shielding the
area from any unsettle weather well into the new work week.
This will allow for mainly clear skies and a warming trend
through midweek.

By Wednesday afternoon, chances for shower and storms returns.
Models have a good handle on a cold front passing through on
Thursday, however they diverge thereafter. Ideally diurnal
thunderstorms will prevail for the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Southerly flow dominates the rest of this period
influencing the region with plenty of warm air advection and a
strong moisture flux from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 128 AM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least 16Z Saturday.
Radar imagery shows scattered light showers, most not reaching the
ground across OH, moving east into WV. Do not expect restrictions
with this activity overnight.

However, unstable conditions emerge this afternoon and evening as
southwest flow advects plenty of moisture to destabilize the
atmosphere allowing for afternoon convection. In addition, an upper
level disturbance will bring forcing to sustain strong to severe
updrafts/downdrafts Saturday afternoon and evening. Brief periods of
IFR conditions under strong gusty winds can be expected under or
nearby thunderstorms with more confidence across the northern sites.
Using Hi-res CAMS models, timed and coded thunderstorms with PROB30
during the late afternoon and evening hours at PKB and CKB. Other
sites may be affected as well, but confidence runs lower at this
time so coded VCTS for now.

SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across northern and central portions of the area, with a
marginal risk farther south. The main severe threat with
thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and may last on into
the evening hours.

Light south to southeast surface flow tonight will become light south
to southwest on Saturday. Moderate south flow aloft tonight will
become light south to southwest on Saturday. Low level wind shear is
possible overnight, particularly where gusts do not mix to the
surface, which would most likely be across the lowlands. The low
level flow should preclude fog formation overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed in showers and
especially stronger thunderstorms Saturday, most likely in the
afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 06/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ