Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
534
FNUS75 KRIW 101152
FWSRIW
Spot Forecast for Horsecreek Fire...USDA
National Weather Service Riverton WY
552 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure rise builds across western WY starting today, with
hot temperatures and low humidity. Humidity will fall below 30
percent by 1200, and will remain around 20 percent through 2000.
Winds will be light and terrain based, upslope around 5 mph
through 1400, before becoming more northwest dominant in the
afternoon around 10 mph. Skies will remain mostly sunny, with no
precipitation expected. Very warm conditions will bring a very
unstable atmosphere, with large plumes possible.
Winds will become light downslope again after sunset, remaining
below 5 mph through the night. Humidity recovery will be poor,
only reaching near 35 percent overnight.
Very warm and dry conditions continue Thursday, with humidity
levels remaining below 20 percent through the afternoon. Winds
will be somewhat higher as well, with west winds 10 to 15 mph
dominating the afternoon, with gusts of 20 mph expected. Skies
will remain mostly sunny, with no precipitation expected. Very
warm conditions will bring a very unstable atmosphere, with large
plumes possible.
...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light until 1300, then northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South 10 to 15 mph until 1000, then west.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL after 1300.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 14 mph until 1000, then west 10 to
17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. Very good early in the morning
increasing to excellent in the afternoon after
1300.
Haines Index........5 to 6.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5 0 0 0 0 5 5 15 15 15 15 15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............51 53 56 60 62 64 67 69 69 70 72 72
RH..............46 44 45 39 33 31 26 25 24 22 21 21
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW W W W W NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 16
Ridge wind dir..S S S SW SW W W W W NW NW NW
Ridge wind spd..15 15 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 4.5 7.5 9.0 9.5 10 10 10 10
Transp wind dir.S S S S W W W W W W W NW
Transp wind spd.14 13 12 12 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 17
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/10000 0 0 3 41 77 98 127 141 152 154 153
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts to
around 16 mph until 2100, then light.
Ridgetop wind.......Northwest 10 to 15 mph until 0100, then east
until 0500, then southeast.
Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL until 1900.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph until 0100, then
southeast around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 1900. Poor after 2000.
Haines Index........6.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25 15 15 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 5 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............71 70 68 64 60 60 59 59 58 57 57 55
RH..............21 22 26 28 29 27 28 28 29 30 30 32
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW N N N N NE E E SE SE
20 FT wind spd..10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.16 13 11 10 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7
Ridge wind dir..NW NW NW N N N N NE E E SE SE
Ridge wind spd..15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...9.5 7.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW SE E SE SE S
Transp wind spd.17 15 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/1000142 89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100, then west 8 to 15 mph
with gusts to around 20 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 10 mph until 1100, then west 15 to
20 mph until 1500, then around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL after 1200.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph until 1000, then west
12 to 21 mph until 1400, then 22 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. Excellent after 1200.
Haines Index........6.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10 5 5 0 0 5 5 5 5 10 10 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............55 56 60 64 66 68 71 72 73 73 74 74
RH..............32 32 32 30 25 22 20 19 19 19 17 17
20 FT wind dir..S S S S SW W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 6 8 11 13 14 15 15 15
20 FT wind gust.8 8 8 10 11 14 17 18 18 19 19 20
Ridge wind dir..S S S S SW W W W W W W W
Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 10 10 15 20 20 20 25 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 5.5 8.0 10 10 11 11 10 9.5
Transp wind dir.S S SW SW W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 12 15 18 21 22 23 23 23
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
SDspl kt-ft/10000 0 0 6 55 102 163 184 196 207 199 192
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 8 mph.
$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Matthew Bell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417316.25/RIW
.DELDT 07/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.bell2@usda.gov