088
FXUS65 KRIW 041023
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
423 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More isolated in nature for rain showers and thunderstorms
  Thursday afternoon Bighorn Basin and eastern Counties, but
  severe weather is not expected.

- Mainly dry and a warming trend through the long term forecast
  with increasing fire weather risk the main hazard going
  forward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

IR currently depicts the shortwave trough pushing east into the
upper Great Plains with northwest flow aloft continuing over the
CWA. A couple light rain showers are pushing through Natrona
County that will dissipate through the early morning hours with
no impacts expected. One last but weaker wave will pass through
mid to late afternoon once again with less PVA associated with
it. As such, more isolated in nature will be thunderstorm
coverage developing off the Absarokas once again (20-30%
coverage) push east through the Bighorn Basin and into Natrona
County in the evening hours through sunset before dissipating as
it loses any instability. Otherwise, unseasonable cooler than
average temperatures during the afternoon with some breezy
westerly winds developing my early afternoon through sunset.
Strongest gusty over 30-35 mph for points across Sweetwater
County and into the Green River Basin. Less than 20-30 mph for
other areas with most remaining dry throughout. Severe weather
is not expected as there is much weaker ingredients than
previous day, in which it did not occur as well. Some stronger
than synoptic gusts could occur near any storm activity but
nothing significant expected.

The main story moving forward into the long term forecast will
be mainly dry conditions with a warming trend over the weekend
and into next week. Higher heights centered near the Sierra
Nevadas will continue to build with increasing convergence aloft
with ridging extending through the upper Rockies from Friday
onward. Some breezy afternoons with Saturday the strongest day
with gusts up to 30-40 mph likely due to the strongest gradient
occurring. This will bring elevated fire weather risk to the
forefront moving forward, and again, Saturday being the day that
stands out. With the weaker upper level flow, there is still a
small chance for higher terrain storm development associated
with air mass type occurrence, but otherwise, dry for most with
less than 10 percent chance for this Monday onward. This
blocking high will keep a deep low coming out of the GOA to
remain well off the West Coast pushing the PFJ well into Canada
as well. No significant weather impacts outside of elevated fire
weather concerns moving forward. Enjoy the cooler temperatures
for the 4th (albeit not as cool as last year), before the heat
returns pushing well into the 90s east of the Divide and mid to
upper 80s to the west starting Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Winds have subsided overnight and will remain so through mid to
late morning. West- northwest winds, with gusts around 25 kt,
will return to KBPI/KPNA and KRKS by 18Z, while winds will keep
a northerly component across areas east of the Divide. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible again across northern
portions Thursday afternoon, but coverage may not be as
widespread as today. Confidence remains too low to include in
any terminal forecast at this time. Winds west of the Divide
will begin to subside after 01Z, with light winds across the
forecast area by the end of the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Dziewaltowski