986
FXUS65 KRIW 050406
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1006 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern continues through this weekend as
  the trough hangs around.

- Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms continue across
  northeastern portions of the area from the Absaroka Mountains
  to Johnson County through this afternoon/evening. Elevated
  fire weather conditions persist across southern Wyoming today.

- A heat wave is looking more and more likely to begin next week
  as a strong ridge moves into the region. This appears to be a
  prolonged heat event, with highs 90+ F for most lower
  elevations beginning Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Troughing will be the general weather pattern through this weekend,
with several waves within the trough sliding through Wyoming. Today
(Independence Day/The 4th of July) looks pleasant temperature-wise
as cooler air remains in the area behind the weather system that
moved through yesterday. The cooler air aloft is allowing for
isolated convection to develop. The best chance will be along/near
the Absaroka Mountains/Bighorn Mountains where afternoon upslope
will contribute to lift. The threat of heavy rain has diminished
greatly today and it will be difficult for any locations to have
measurable rain.

Model guidance remains in disagreement on where the weak upper-
low/shortwave will be located as it passes by in northwest flow this
on Friday. The GFS still has it too far north and east for much of
any impact in the forecast area, whereas the ECMWF did shift further
north and east than yesterday`s solution, but still looks to clip
northeastern portions of the forecast area. The GFS has been more
consistent, so tend to believe it more in this situation. As such,
mostly clear skies on Friday will allow for temperatures to get back
to about normal (middle 70s F to low 80s F). Model guidance has
another wave coming down in northwest flow this weekend, which will
bring chances for isolated convection to mainly northeastern
portions of the area. The trend is for this wave to be slightly
stronger, with an increase in precip chances for northeastern
portions of the area as it slides through. This looks like the last
gasp for the trough that has been sitting over the region as a large
amplified ridge pushes into the western US early next week. This
ridge will bring hotter temperatures back to Wyoming and heat will
become the most impactful weather well into next week based on what
long-range model guidance is depicting. This looks like a prolonged
period of heat, so if heat is impactful to you then now is the time
to make preparations. Along with the heat comes very dry conditions,
which leads to fire weather concerns. This will be touched on in the
Fire Weather Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period. There is a
chance (20%) that showers/thunderstorms could impact KCPR at the
start of the forecast, but these impacts are expected to last
very briefly. Lightning will likely be the main impact as well.
Otherwise, light winds and SKC skies in place through the rest
of the morning. Wind gusts around 25 kt will return to most
terminals again Friday afternoon, subsiding after 01Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across southern fire
zones this week. The worst day will be Saturday as wind increases
ahead of the next weather system and RH will drop into the teens in
the afternoon. Isolated rain showers will pass through northern
zones today, but the CWR is very low. Smoke dispersal looks to be at
least good in the afternoon for the next few days at a minimum. As
temperatures increase next week it will become very dry. RH values
look like they will be in the low teens (possibly upper single
digits) for most lower elevations. High pressure will keep it dry,
with little to no chance of precip expected for most of next week,
at this time. The saving grace is wind will be much lighter than it
has been so far this summer thanks to the area of high pressure.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...LaVoie
FIRE WEATHER...Rowe