813
FXUS65 KREV 292029
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
129 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Breezy winds will produce elevated to locally critical fire
  weather conditions each afternoon this weekend.

* Dry conditions will prevail through next week, except for a
  slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon over
  northeast CA and northwest NV.

* Temperatures rise to well above average from midweek through
  the July 4th holiday weekend, with Moderate to locally High
  HeatRisk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak trough passage across the western US this weekend will
bring breezy west winds each afternoon, with gusts generally in
the 25-30 mph range. This will produce some chop on area lakes
(although below the criteria for lake wind advisory) along with
elevated fire weather concerns. Minimum RH values will be lowest
today, ranging from 10-17% for much of western NV, then edge up by
about 2-5% on Sunday.

For Sunday afternoon, an upper level disturbance will bring
increased instability and forcing that could produce isolated
showers and thunderstorms across northeast CA-northwest NV. Most
cells are expected to remain north of Susanville-Gerlach, although
a couple storms could form in Pershing County as far south as
I-80. These storms are likely to be moving relatively fast,
resulting in limited precip amounts with a risk for a few
lightning fire starts.

Temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages
through the first couple days of July as dry northwest flow aloft
prevails, with lighter winds Monday and Tuesday.

Attention then turns to the warmup as we get to the July 4th
holiday weekend. The latest trend shows increasing chances for
triple digit heat returning to some western NV valleys as soon as
Wednesday, then remaining nearly steady through Friday with the
peak heating next Saturday and Sunday. While highs of at least 100
degrees for the main western NV communities are a decent 40-65%
chance, the more extreme scenario of 105+ degrees remains a less
certain threat--about 10-20% probability, possibly up to 30% by
next weekend. Tahoe area and Sierra communities have about 25-50%
chance for highs above 90 degrees from Wednesday through next
weekend. The location of the ridge center continues to vary among
the latest ensemble cluster guidance, as some back door trough
activity across the northern Rockies could delay or even prevent
the ridge center from settling directly over western NV.

If planning outdoor activities for the holiday weekend, prepare
for the hot conditions and limit/avoid strenuous activity during
the afternoon hours. Also be sure your vehicle is well maintained
to reduce the risk of overheating, especially when traveling
uphill and/or towing a trailer or boat. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Increased west surface winds arrive each afternoon this weekend
with gusts near 25 kts at the main terminals. FL100/ridge top
gusts up to 40 kts will produce areas of turbulence and possible
brief LLWS around the main terminals through tonight.

Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail this weekend into
next week. Steady warming may present density altitude concerns for
mid-late next week. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$