798
FXUS65 KREV 290804
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
104 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Seasonably warm weather and gusty winds are in store this weekend,
  producing choppy lake waters and elevated to locally critical fire
  weather conditions each afternoon.

* Dry conditions will prevail through next week except for a slight
  chance of afternoon showers and storms Sunday afternoon for
  northeast California to near the Oregon border.

* Above normal temperatures will foster a moderate to locally major
  heat risk from midweek into the July 4th weekend.

.DISCUSSION...

Seasonable warmth and dry weather continues this weekend with a
recurrence of gusty winds each afternoon and early evening. West
winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will arrive this
afternoon for much of western Nevada, reaching its apex near sunset.
As such, plan on choppy lake waters and turbulent flight
arrivals/departures over the weekend.

A temporal offset of lowest daytime humidity and strongest winds
will preclude a greater fire concern today, although a 2-4 hour
period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will
likely exist this afternoon across portions of western Nevada. Winds
will remain breezy for Sunday, but will be a skosh weaker than
today`s winds. While this weekend will remain mostly dry, there is a
10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms for portions of Lassen
and N Washoe County Sunday afternoon.

The latest suite of ensembles stubbornly favor a summer heat episode
for much of next week as an amplified eastern Pacific ridge
slowly shifts eastward to the western states. Blended guidance
suggests that the most likely daytime highs during the July 4th
holiday and beyond will be in the upper 80s to low-90s for Sierra
communities and in the upper 90s to 103F for lower western Nevada
valleys. To compound the daytime heat risk, warm overnight lows
near 70F across western Nevada will provide little to no relief
from the heat. As a result, a moderate to locally major heat risk
will exist for portions of the Sierra and a vast majority of
western Nevada from midweek onward.

Be sure to keep the upcoming heat spell in mind when planning
outdoor activities for next week, especially for Independence Day
festivities, and take your heat safety precautions next week. On a
lighter note, blended guidance suggests mostly clear skies for the
night of July 4th, which should make for excellent firework viewing!

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Increased west surface winds arrive each afternoon this weekend with
occasional gusts up to 20-30 kts. Periods of light to moderate
turbulence and LLWS are possible this evening (03-09z) for Tahoe
Basin and Sierra Front terminals as surface winds weaken beneath
strengthening FL100 winds (25-35kts). FL100 winds will weaken after
midnight and mitigate turbulence/LLWS impacts.

Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail this weekend into
next week. Steady warming may present density altitude concerns for
the latter half of next week.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$