Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
813 FXUS65 KREV 292029 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 129 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Breezy winds will produce elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions each afternoon this weekend. * Dry conditions will prevail through next week, except for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon over northeast CA and northwest NV. * Temperatures rise to well above average from midweek through the July 4th holiday weekend, with Moderate to locally High HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... A weak trough passage across the western US this weekend will bring breezy west winds each afternoon, with gusts generally in the 25-30 mph range. This will produce some chop on area lakes (although below the criteria for lake wind advisory) along with elevated fire weather concerns. Minimum RH values will be lowest today, ranging from 10-17% for much of western NV, then edge up by about 2-5% on Sunday. For Sunday afternoon, an upper level disturbance will bring increased instability and forcing that could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast CA-northwest NV. Most cells are expected to remain north of Susanville-Gerlach, although a couple storms could form in Pershing County as far south as I-80. These storms are likely to be moving relatively fast, resulting in limited precip amounts with a risk for a few lightning fire starts. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages through the first couple days of July as dry northwest flow aloft prevails, with lighter winds Monday and Tuesday. Attention then turns to the warmup as we get to the July 4th holiday weekend. The latest trend shows increasing chances for triple digit heat returning to some western NV valleys as soon as Wednesday, then remaining nearly steady through Friday with the peak heating next Saturday and Sunday. While highs of at least 100 degrees for the main western NV communities are a decent 40-65% chance, the more extreme scenario of 105+ degrees remains a less certain threat--about 10-20% probability, possibly up to 30% by next weekend. Tahoe area and Sierra communities have about 25-50% chance for highs above 90 degrees from Wednesday through next weekend. The location of the ridge center continues to vary among the latest ensemble cluster guidance, as some back door trough activity across the northern Rockies could delay or even prevent the ridge center from settling directly over western NV. If planning outdoor activities for the holiday weekend, prepare for the hot conditions and limit/avoid strenuous activity during the afternoon hours. Also be sure your vehicle is well maintained to reduce the risk of overheating, especially when traveling uphill and/or towing a trailer or boat. MJD && .AVIATION... Increased west surface winds arrive each afternoon this weekend with gusts near 25 kts at the main terminals. FL100/ridge top gusts up to 40 kts will produce areas of turbulence and possible brief LLWS around the main terminals through tonight. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail this weekend into next week. Steady warming may present density altitude concerns for mid-late next week. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$