Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
413 FXUS65 KREV 300858 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 158 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Seasonably warm temperatures and breezy winds expected today with a chance of showers and storms for northeast California and far northwest Nevada this afternoon and evening. * Above normal temperatures will foster a moderate to locally major heat risk from midweek into the July 4th weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Our weather playlist is seemingly stuck on repeat as seasonable warmth with breezy afternoon winds are in store once again today. However, the main change will be a 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon for portions of Lassen and N Washoe County, generally north of a Susanville-Gerlach line. Timing of afternoon convection favors the 2-8 PM PDT window with potential hazards including dry lightning, gusty outflow winds and small hail. One final note: Diluted smoke from the Basin fire may drift into southern parts of Mono County this evening, although latest Hi-Res guidance suggests smoke concentration will be lower. After today, dry weather will largely prevail throughout the upcoming week as northwest flow aloft and attendant large scale subsidence overspreads the region. The best opportunity will be Tuesday afternoon, which features a 5-10% of showers and storms from the Tahoe Basin southward. A significant warm-up remains queued up for midweek into next weekend as temperatures become 10-15 degrees above early July standards. Latest blended guidance continues to advertise daytime highs in the low 90s for Sierra communities and upper 90s to 103F for lower western Nevada valleys for Wednesday onward. Meanwhile, overnight lows will only fall into mid 60s to 70F across western Nevada during this time, providing little to no relief from the heat. As a result, a moderate to locally major heat risk will exist from midweek into next weekend for some Sierra locales and most of western Nevada. Be sure to consider the upcoming heat risk when making plans for next week, especially for Independence Day festivities, and review your safety precautions to keep yourself and loved ones safe from the heat! It does still appear that skies will be mostly clear on the night of July 4th so firework viewing should be excellent! -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions and breezy surface winds in the afternoon (up to 25 kts) will prevail today. There is a 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms within 10 miles of KSVE terminals between 21Z and 03Z this afternoon. A steady warming trend may yield density altitude issues later this week. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry, isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of a diffuse cold front this afternoon for portions of Lassen County into northern Washoe and Pershing counties. Widely cured fine fuel beds in this region will be receptive to lightning ignitions, especially outside of main precipitation cores. A deep, well-mixed subcloud layer will support gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph near any mature thunderstorms. A brief 2-4 hour period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will exist Monday afternoon for eastern Lassen County into western Nevada north of I-80 as gusty winds of 25-35 mph overlaps daytime humidity of 10-15%. It`s worth mentioning that Monday`s fire weather threat will spatially coincide with an area susceptible to dry thunderstorms today, which may exacerbate any holdover lightning ignitions. The remainder of the week will feature widespread warming, yielding a prolonged period of above average temperatures, very low daytime humidities, poor overnight humidities, and deep mixing heights. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$