Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
540 FXUS65 KREV 262042 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 142 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Gusty west winds through this evening with drier air bringing critical fire weather conditions and choppy lakes. * Another round of increased breezes this weekend with dry air in place could bring more fire weather concerns and choppy lakes. * For next week including the July 4th holiday, above average temperatures are likely with typical afternoon breezes and very low chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Winds associated with a trough passage across the Pacific Northwest will increase through this afternoon, while the air mass becomes drier and produces enhanced fire weather and lake recreation concerns. A few storms may form again through early evening in west central NV mainly east of US-95 and the southeast corner of Mono County, but activity will be much more sparse compared to yesterday. While winds will diminish in most valleys overnight, gusts of 50-70 mph will continue for higher elevations and ridge tops. Behind this trough on Thursday, temperatures ease back a bit to near late June averages, with some leftover W-NW breezes during the day. Flat ridging and benign weather through Friday will then be followed by another trough passage this weekend across the northwest US. This system is tracking a bit farther north compared to today`s trough, so the wind gusts appear to be a bit less-- currently projected near 30 mph Saturday-Sunday afternoon. For next week, the overall pattern continues to favor dry conditions with northwest flow aloft transition to a prevailing high pressure ridge. There are discrepancies on where this ridge center sets up and which days would bring the peak strength over CA-NV. The more aggressive ridge scenarios for mid-late next week would support triple digit heat across the lower elevations (about 25-45% chance of 100+ degrees, and even up to 10% chance of reaching 105 degrees). The ECMWF/GFS deterministic data currently sits at the high end of the temperature ranges, while blended ensemble guidance suggests a less amplified ridge with above average but less extreme temperatures around the July 4th holiday. MJD && .AVIATION... * SW-W Wind gusts 25-30 kt at the main terminals will produce areas of turbulence thru 03-05Z this evening. With winds remaining gusty over the ridges (50-60 kt) overnight into Thursday morning while surface winds diminish, some shear may also occur. Winds on Thursday become W-NW with gusts mainly 20-25 kt. * Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least the remainder of the month. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... * All ongoing Red Flag Warnings continue through 11 PM this evening for much of western NV and far northeast CA. * Yesterday`s t-storms produced plenty of lightning across northwest and west central NV southward to Mono County. As winds increase this afternoon, followed by the drier air mass on Thursday, some new fire starts may emerge as holdovers from this lightning activity, especially where rainfall was more sparse. * W-NW wind gusts on Thursday behind the cold front/trough passage will be lower than today (mainly 20-30 mph), but it will be notably drier with afternoon RH dropping to around 10% for most lower elevations. While watches/warnings aren`t planned for Thursday, a few locations in western NV could see short periods of critical fire weather conditions. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ003-004. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-458. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. && $$