Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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725 FXUS62 KRAH 021745 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will offshore into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to warm up for the 4th of July through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 PM Tuesday.. As surface high pressure currently centered over the Northeast continues to slowly slide offshore this afternoon, quiet weather will continue across Central NC. Dew points today have been in the 50s across the region, with onshore moisture moving in later this evening dew points will get into the 60s later tonight especially in the eastern portions of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. High temperatures will top out this afternoon in the mid 80s with a few areas in the south getting into the upper 80s. Lows overnight will be slightly warmer than last night ranging from low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Tuesday.. A subtropical ridge over the Southeast may weaken a couple of decameters and retreat slightly, as convectively-generated disturbances, in quasi-zonal flow poleward of the ridge, develop and move from the cntl Plains and mid MS Valley ewd and across the OH Valley and cntl Appalachians. While associated height falls will be maximized across the OH Valley and nrn Middle Atlantic, 10-20 meter/12 hr falls will support some gradual weakening of the preceding strong subsidence inversion in place over cntl NC, especially Wed night. Some mid/high-level moistening and cloudiness may result Wed night, after high-based, diurnally-driven stratocumulus become scattered to broken Wed afternoon and dissipate through the evening. Otherwise, temperatures will moderate to slightly above average --highs in the upr 80s to lwr 90s and lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s-- as increasingly-modified, Canadian surface high pressure drifts off the Middle Atlantic coast and directs sely to sly flow across cntl NC from late afternoon through overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the Deep South through Thu night. A potent northern stream s/w will move through the northern Plains/upper MS Valley Thu/Thu night, picking up a weaker s/w moving through the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. The mid/upper trough will amplify west of the Appalachians Fri/Fri night, as the s/w disturbances continue eastward through the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The high over the Deep South will be gradually pushed eastward through the Southeast on Fri and off the Southeast US coast Fri night/Sat the trough amplifies west of the Appalachians. As the initial s/w lifts newd into Canada on Sat, another northern stream s/w will drop into the northern Plains, tracking eastward along the US/Canada border into the Great Lakes Sat night/Sun. As this second s/w moves through the Great Lakes, the longwave trough will further amplify, extending from the s/w to the ARKLATEX by Sun night. All the while, central NC will remain situated between the trough to the west and the high to the east, with deep southwesterly flow prevailing. At the surface, a lee trough will set up and remain in place through Sat night, when a cold front will approach from the west. As of the latest model solutions, the front will largely wash out along the Appalachians Sat night, possibly laying W-E through WV/VA Sun as high pressure lifts newd through the OH Valley and Northeast, but the front appears to stay north of central NC. Expect swly flow and the advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once the ridge moves out Thu morning and prevail through at least Sat. Temperatures will be above to well above normal Thu through Mon. Latest forecast heat index values do creep back to around 105 again in a few spots on Thu, however the more widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 (across much of central NC) are expected Fri and Sat. Some lingering heat index values of 100-105 are possible across the south and east on Sun and Mon. As for rainfall, with central NC on the northern periphery of the ridge, some convection riding the ridge may move across the northern half of the area Thu aft/eve. Then as the mid-level ridge gradually gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, expect more diurnally driven convection Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve, possibly continuing for Mon aft/eve as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this afternoon will become calm for a few hours before sunrise across most areas. A few very isolated gusts of 15-20kts are possible this afternoon, but not frequent enough to add to TAF. Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 98/2019 July 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 101/2002 July 6: KRDU: 102/2022 KFAY: 99/1990 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/1902 KFAY: 77/2005 July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 76/2017 July 7: KGSO: 73/2019 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2017 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CA/MWS CLIMATE...RAH