513
FXUS62 KRAH 021830
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will offshore into the Mid-Atlantic through
Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to warm up for the 4th of July
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday..

As surface high pressure currently centered over the Northeast
continues to slowly slide offshore this afternoon, quiet weather
will continue across Central NC. Dew points today have been in the
50s across the region, with onshore moisture moving in later this
evening dew points will get into the 60s later tonight especially in
the eastern portions of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. High
temperatures will top out this afternoon in the mid 80s with a few
areas in the south getting into the upper 80s. Lows overnight will
be slightly warmer than last night ranging from low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday..

Continued dry on Wednesday under the influence of a 1024mb high off
the Mid-Atlantic coast and and eastward shifting 595dm sub-tropical
at 500mb over the Deep South.  As the surface high shifts eastward
as well, return flow will begin to kick in, but likely not until
late in the day, delaying the return of upper 60s and lower 70
dewpoints until Thursday.  1000-850mb thicknesses rise 15-20m over
today`s expected values, which will result in highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s, coolest in the northeast away from the thermal.
ridge.

With southerly return flow becoming established Wednesday night,
guidance suggests some stratocu across the foothills and drifting
into the western Piedmont, with otherwise quiet weather and lows
likely to range from the upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the Deep South
through Thu night. A potent northern stream s/w will move through
the northern Plains/upper MS Valley Thu/Thu night, picking up a
weaker s/w moving through the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley.
The mid/upper trough will amplify west of the Appalachians Fri/Fri
night, as the s/w disturbances continue eastward through the Great
Lakes and OH Valley. The high over the Deep South will be gradually
pushed eastward through the Southeast on Fri and off the Southeast
US coast Fri night/Sat the trough amplifies west of the
Appalachians. As the initial s/w lifts newd into Canada on Sat,
another northern stream s/w will drop into the northern Plains,
tracking eastward along the US/Canada border into the Great Lakes
Sat night/Sun. As this second s/w moves through the Great Lakes, the
longwave trough will further amplify, extending from the s/w to the
ARKLATEX by Sun night. All the while, central NC will remain
situated between the trough to the west and the high to the east,
with deep southwesterly flow prevailing. At the surface, a lee
trough will set up and remain in place through Sat night, when a
cold front will approach from the west. As of the latest model
solutions, the front will largely wash out along the Appalachians
Sat night, possibly laying W-E through WV/VA Sun as high pressure
lifts newd through the OH Valley and Northeast, but the front
appears to stay north of central NC. Expect swly flow and the
advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once the
ridge moves out Thu morning and prevail through at least Sat.

Temperatures will be above to well above normal Thu through Mon.
Latest forecast heat index values do creep back to around 105 again
in a few spots on Thu, however the more widespread heat index values
of 105 to 109 (across much of central NC) are expected Fri and Sat.
Some lingering heat index values of 100-105 are possible across the
south and east on Sun and Mon.

As for rainfall, with central NC on the northern periphery of the
ridge, some convection riding the ridge may move across the northern
half of the area Thu aft/eve. Then as the mid-level ridge gradually
gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, expect more
diurnally driven convection Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve, possibly
continuing for Mon aft/eve as well.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable
winds this afternoon will become  calm for a few hours before
sunrise across most areas. A few very isolated gusts of 15-20kts are
possible this afternoon, but not frequent enough to add to TAF.

Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC
Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 98/1970
KRDU: 101/2012
KFAY: 98/2019

July 5:
KGSO: 98/2012
KRDU: 102/1999
KFAY: 101/2002

July 6:
KRDU: 102/2022
KFAY: 99/1990


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 73/2018

July 5:
KGSO: 74/1999
KRDU: 78/1902
KFAY: 77/2005

July 6:
KGSO: 76/1999
KRDU: 79/1900
KFAY: 76/2017

July 7:
KGSO: 73/2019
KRDU: 77/1900
KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CA/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH