580
FXUS62 KRAH 010553
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
152 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area very early today. Much drier
and cooler high pressure will then extend into the southeast today
through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and humidity is expected
by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 951 PM Sunday...

Despite multiple rounds of convection over central NC through the
afternoon into the evening hours, the area is characterized by a
continued moist and unstable environment ahead of an approaching
cold front from the north. 00z RAOB data from GSO, MHX, and FFC show
PWAT values near or exceeding the moving daily maximum of their
local climatology showing values of 2 to 2.25 inches. Surface
temperatures in the 80s to upper 70s combined with surface dew
points in the mid/upper 70s yield little to non-existent surface
stability and nearly uncapped MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg.
Continued outflow boundary collisions and localized ascent from
upstream MCVs will support the sustenance of showers and storms
through 06z.

A cold front is currently observed pushing through northern VA where
a northerly wind shift with a notable drop in dew points into the
60s to 50s. A second round of convection is likely as this front
sags south into central NC tonight into early Mon morning. Severe
threat will likely be limited, but isolated strong to severe wet
downbursts may still be possible, especially if any loosely
organized multi-cell clusters develop. Additionally, localized
flooding will remain possible, especially where training storms
occur or heavy rainfall impacts areas that previously saw heavy rain
from the first round of storms. Lows tonight will be tied heavily to
the cooler air that spills in behind the front ranging from the mid
60s (NE) to mid 70s (S).

&&


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

Overnight showers and storms should be exiting the southern coastal
plain by Monday morning as a fairly stout cold front for the season
(10-15F temp drop across OH this afternoon), surges into the area
from the north.  a 40m+ drop in 1000-850mb thicknesses combined with
dewpoints dropping into the 50s (some guidance suggests upper 40s
with mixing) will result in a much welcomed relief from the heat.
highs will top out several degrees below normal in the low to mid
80s. Also behind the front, winds will gust to 15kt to perhaps as
high as 20kt.  RH values will also dip into the lower 30s across
northern areas.  This does not met any criteria for fore weather
hazards, but given the recent drought development, it is worth
noting.

Lows Monday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

 &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

A common summertime airmass moderation will occur throughout the
week as the sub-tropical ridge, briefly tempered by today`s
shortwave and cold front, will build back east across the region,
while the Bermuda highs allows moisture to return back across the
region with winds turning to southerly by late Wednesday into
Thursday.  The upper ridge, progged to again reach 596dm+ by
Thursday across the southeast US, will also support the return of
highs in the mid/upper 90s areawide and potentially 100s in some
locations.  Dewpoints are also progged to trend back into the lower
70s, particularly in the east on the downshear side of the lee
trough.  This will may again result in dangerous heat and humidity
as has been observed for the past few days.  Rain chances will hinge
on the lee trough and other diurnally forced circulations Thursday
into the weekend,  Models to hint at a weak cold front by Sunday
Monday with an upper trough over the northern US.  Confidence in
that remains low at days 7/89.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue across central
NC early this morning as a cold front moves through between 10z and
13z. The best chance at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI).
Some stratus is also expected to develop after about 07z-08z at FAY
and RWI, with MVFR or IFR ceilings possible. Models differ on how
far west the sub-VFR stratus will reach, but for now have a TEMPO
for MVFR ceilings at RDU. Winds will shift from S/SW to NE behind
the cold front. NE winds may gust to 15-25 kts into early afternoon
before gradually diminishing.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday afternoon through
Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return
flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for
diurnal showers/ storms and early morning fog/stratus from Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...bls
LONG TERM...bls
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco