578
FXUS62 KRAH 011956
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
356 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Much drier and cooler high pressure will then extend into the
southeast today through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and
humidity is expected by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday...

Post-frontal dry air continues to spill south into central NC this
afternoon as dew points are currently hovering in the lower to mid
50s (N) to lower 60s (S). Temperatures are currently hovering in the
upper 70s/lower 80s, and shouldn`t increase too much more today.
Expect some residual gusts to persist the next few hours, but sfc
winds should subside through sunset.

A pleasant night is on tap with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
and dew points in the 50s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday..

Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC
from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light
northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s
for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points
will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface
high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will
become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear
with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the TN Valley and Deep
South on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, high
pressure centered just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast on
Wednesday morning will shift farther east, shifting the low-level
flow to a S/SE direction. This will continue a warming trend, but
conditions still won`t be too oppressive with near-normal highs in
the upper-80s to lower-90s, as dew points mix out to the upper-50s
to lower-60s in the afternoon. This pattern of ridging and
subsidence will also support one last day of no precipitation
chances. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper-60s to lower-70s.

The mid-level anticyclone will gradually break down and shift
southeast away from our region during the remainder of the extended
period as a series of shortwaves moves across the northern tier of
the US and SE Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of
us, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring in higher PW
values exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Monday. The most
potent shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches
the Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out
before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become
south/southwesterly ahead of the front and as high pressure
continues to push farther east near Bermuda. This will increase dew
points into the upper-60s to mid-70s. With better moisture and
instability in place along with a lee trough setting up, shower and
storm chances will return each afternoon and evening, first over the
Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through Monday. The
greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are in the NW on
Friday and Saturday, shifting to the SE on Sunday and Monday. The
storms look to be more of a pulse variety given the lack of shear,
so widespread severe weather is not expected.

The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which
are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from
Thursday through Saturday. Heat indices in the low-100s will be
possible on Thursday, and basic heat precautions should still be
taken especially given the Independence Day holiday with a lot of
people outdoors. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most
humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected
from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely
be needed on these days. A slight moderation is expected on Sunday
and Monday, but highs will still be in the lower-to-mid-90s with
little to no relief from the humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period as dry
air filters in behind a departing cold front. Some residual VFR
stratocu may stick around some this afternoon, but overall skies
should be mostly clear.  Residual gusty nely sfc flow early this
afternoon will subside through later this afternoon and into the
evening. Light nly flow early Tuesday will turn more ely but remain
light in the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tuesday through Thursday as
dry high pressure extends down into central NC.  Return flow on
Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal
showers and early morning fog/stratus next weekend.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti