989
FXUS62 KRAH 020626
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
226 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will move across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Monday...

Latest surface analysis shows a 1024 mb area of high pressure
centered over Lake Huron with a large area of surface dew points in
the 40s extending from western NY west across the Great Lakes
and into WI. A northeast low level flow continues across the
mid- Atlantic and Carolinas this evening with winds relaxing a
bit from this afternoon. Dew points generally range in the
lower to mid 50s across much of central NC with some lower 60s
noted across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A northwest flow
aloft is noted across the region as a mid and upper level ridge
builds across the lower MS Valley. A few disturbances in the
flow aloft including a well defined vort max across western
KY/TN will spread some high clouds across the western Carolinas
overnight. Some guidance hints also at some low level moisture
in the 3-7kft layer may work its way north late tonight into the
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain but this scenario seems a
little too aggressive and thing most of the clouds will hold to
our south. Otherwise, expect fair weather with mainly clear
skies. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s
with a few of the typically colder spots near Roxboro, Henderson
and Sanford flirting with some mid 50s. These temperatures are
about 5 to 9 degrees below average. -Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Monday..

Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC
from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light
northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s
for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points
will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface
high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will
become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear
with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the Deep South
through Thu night. A potent northern stream s/w will move through
the northern Plains/upper MS Valley Thu/Thu night, picking up a
weaker s/w moving through the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley.
The mid/upper trough will amplify west of the Appalachians Fri/Fri
night, as the s/w disturbances continue eastward through the Great
Lakes and OH Valley. The high over the Deep South will be gradually
pushed eastward through the Southeast on Fri and off the Southeast
US coast Fri night/Sat the trough amplifies west of the
Appalachians. As the initial s/w lifts newd into Canada on Sat,
another northern stream s/w will drop into the northern Plains,
tracking eastward along the US/Canada border into the Great Lakes
Sat night/Sun. As this second s/w moves through the Great Lakes, the
longwave trough will further amplify, extending from the s/w to the
ARKLATEX by Sun night. All the while, central NC will remain
situated between the trough to the west and the high to the east,
with deep southwesterly flow prevailing. At the surface, a lee
trough will set up and remain in place through Sat night, when a
cold front will approach from the west. As of the latest model
solutions, the front will largely wash out along the Appalachians
Sat night, possibly laying W-E through WV/VA Sun as high pressure
lifts newd through the OH Valley and Northeast, but the front
appears to stay north of central NC. Expect swly flow and the
advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once the
ridge moves out Thu morning and prevail through at least Sat.

Temperatures will be above to well above normal Thu through Mon.
Latest forecast heat index values do creep back to around 105 again
in a few spots on Thu, however the more widespread heat index values
of 105 to 109 (across much of central NC) are expected Fri and Sat.
Some lingering heat index values of 100-105 are possible across the
south and east on Sun and Mon.

As for rainfall, with central NC on the northern periphery of the
ridge, some convection riding the ridge may move across the northern
half of the area Thu aft/eve. Then as the mid-level ridge gradually
gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, expect more
diurnally driven convection Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve, possibly
continuing for Mon aft/eve as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

The presence and influence of Canadian high pressure over the Middle
Atlantic will favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through at least the
next couple of days. Nely surface winds around the high may result
in a few gusts into the teens to near 20 kts with diurnal heating
this morning mainly at FAY, with light nely to ely winds
expected otherwise and elsewhere.

Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC
Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri
through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS