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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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316 FXUS62 KRAH 020119 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 919 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A much cooler and drier area of surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will extend into the region tonight and Tuesday. The high pressure system will shift offshore and a southerly flow will develop on Wednesday and continue into Saturday, resulting in a return of hotter and more humid conditions. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 PM Monday... Latest surface analysis shows a 1024 mb area of high pressure centered over Lake Huron with a large area of surface dew points in the 40s extending from western NY west across the Great Lakes and into WI. A northeast low level flow continues across the mid- Atlantic and Carolinas this evening with winds relaxing a bit from this afternoon. Dew points generally range in the lower to mid 50s across much of central NC with some lower 60s noted across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A northwest flow aloft is noted across the region as a mid and upper level ridge builds across the lower MS Valley. A few disturbances in the flow aloft including a well defined vort max across western KY/TN will spread some high clouds across the western Carolinas overnight. Some guidance hints also at some low level moisture in the 3-7kft layer may work its way north late tonight into the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain but this scenario seems a little too aggressive and thing most of the clouds will hold to our south. Otherwise, expect fair weather with mainly clear skies. Lows tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a few of the typically colder spots near Roxboro, Henderson and Sanford flirting with some mid 50s. These temperatures are about 5 to 9 degrees below average. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday.. Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 PM Monday... A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the TN Valley and Deep South on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure centered just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday morning will shift farther east, shifting the low-level flow to a S/SE direction. This will continue a warming trend, but conditions still won`t be too oppressive with near-normal highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s, as dew points mix out to the upper-50s to lower-60s in the afternoon. This pattern of ridging and subsidence will also support one last day of no precipitation chances. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper-60s to lower-70s. The mid-level anticyclone will gradually break down and shift southeast away from our region during the remainder of the extended period as a series of shortwaves moves across the northern tier of the US and SE Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of us, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring in higher PW values exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Monday. The most potent shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches the Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become south/southwesterly ahead of the front and as high pressure continues to push farther east near Bermuda. This will increase dew points into the upper-60s to mid-70s. With better moisture and instability in place along with a lee trough setting up, shower and storm chances will return each afternoon and evening, first over the Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through Monday. The greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are in the NW on Friday and Saturday, shifting to the SE on Sunday and Monday. The storms look to be more of a pulse variety given the lack of shear, so widespread severe weather is not expected. The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from Thursday through Saturday. Heat indices in the low-100s will be possible on Thursday, and basic heat precautions should still be taken especially given the Independence Day holiday with a lot of people outdoors. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely be needed on these days. A slight moderation is expected on Sunday and Monday, but highs will still be in the lower-to-mid-90s with little to no relief from the humidity. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 PM Monday... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Light north winds will veer towards easterly through Tues afternoon. A brief gust of around 15 kts will be possible Tues morning as the surface inversion breaks, mainly at FAY. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tuesday through Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal showers and early morning fog/stratus into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...Swiggett