664
FXUS62 KRAH 071822
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

* Isolated storms this afternoon

* Spotty areas where late-day heat indices could touch 105 degrees

Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs show the remnants
of Chantal well north of NC. In its wake, large scale subsidence
(and dry weather) is in place across the area with little in the way
of deep convective cloud cover to speak of (some isolated storms are
noted in the mountains as well as across portions of northern SC).
Temps generally range from the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s
in the south, although dewpoints are pretty uniformly in the low to
mid 70s.

For the rest of the afternoon hours, a few spots could see heat
indices briefly touch 105 degrees, although this should not be
widespread and not of any great duration. Meanwhile, the 00Z and 12Z
HREF aren`t overly enthusiastic about precip chances today, which
makes sense given large scale post-TC subsidence. A stray, short
lived shower or storm can`t be ruled out over the western Piedmont
as well as the Sandhills, but these should dissipate quickly with
the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, conditions should be dry
with PoPs of 5-10 percent or less this evening, dropping to near 0
late tonight

Overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

* Heat indices of 105 to 109 expected across portions of central NC,
  and a Heat Advisory has been issued.

* Marginal risk of both flash flooding and severe weather

Tuesday`s weather will see Bermuda high pressure to our east with
weak surface troughing across central NC. Return flow around the
high will allow very warm/humid air to overspread much of central NC
tomorrow, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints following suit into the mid/upper 70s. This in turn should
result in heat indices ranging from 105-109 degrees from the
Triangle southward along US-1 and eastward into the Coastal Plain.
As such, we`re going to issue a Heat Advisory for these areas, and
also include some of the counties that were particularly hard hit
from the remnants of Chantal where recovery/cleanup efforts remain
ongoing and outdoor activities may be more widespread than usual.
Peak timing for dangerous heat indices will be from 10am to 8pm.

Meanwhile with surface troughing across central NC and abundant
moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms should make a return to
the area. While there won`t be much in the way of synoptic forcing
to drive convection, sea breeze convergence and convection rolling
off the mountains should result in a fairly typical distribution of
rainfall chances across the area.  Inverted V soundings support an
increased threat of damaging winds, and saturated soils support an
increased threat of flash flooding (especially in the narrow strip
of counties west of the Triangle due to Chantal`s rainfall). Both
SPC and WPC have central NC highlighted with Marginal Risk for
severe weather and flooding respectively. Peak storm timing from 2-
8pm, dropping off considerably with the loss of daytime heating.

Daytime highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Triad to the mid
90s elsewhere. Overnight lows in the lower 70s (NW) to the mid 70s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

* Active pattern with daily scattered showers and storms each day,
  with highest chances Wed through Fri. Additional rainfall will
  favor flash flooding with ongoing saturated ground and elevated
  river levels over the Piedmont

* Warm and humid with highs upper 80s to low 90s most of the period

The synoptic pattern by the middle of the week will feature longwave
troughing across the Ohio Valley along with a weak inverted trough
well off the southeast coast. In between these two features, a broad
plume of elevated PW`s will remain in place across central NC. There
won`t be much in the way of a strong triggering mechanism outside of
Piedmont troughing and sea breeze convergence, so the overall theme
of Wednesday and Thursday should be one of slow moving scattered
showers and thunderstorms with flooding rain and gusty winds as the
primary hazards. By Friday, the longwave trough to our west should
crest the mountains and make its way into central NC, which could
support a round of more organized shower/storm activity. In the wake
of the trough, westerly flow aloft should yield an overall decrease
of storm coverage Saturday into early next week, with the highest
storm chances in the western Piedmont with lesser chances farther
east.

Temps during the entire period should be within a few degrees of
early/mid July normals, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in
the low to mid 70s.  Highs Thursday/Friday could be a bit lower
given cloud cover but still in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this afternoon, thanks in large
part to subsidence behind the remnants of Chantal. Some very
isolated showers and storms could develop later this afternoon
primarily in the western Piedmont and the Sandhills, but between
limited areal coverage and low confidence in exactly where these
showers/storms will form, I`m electing to keep all 5 TAF sites dry
at this point. Anything that develops should dissipate quickly by
00Z with dry weather thereafter. Showers and storms should increase
in coverage on Tuesday, but not likely to affect any terminals prior
to the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Looking beyond 18z Tue, rounds of scattered storms are
expected each afternoon and evening Tue through Fri as a weak upper
trough slowly approaches from the west. Early morning fog and/or
stratus will also be possible. Storm coverage decreasing a bit this
weekend as westerly flow aloft takes hold.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 222 PM Monday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for several locations across
central NC. As of this afternoon, this includes the following:

Haw River at Haw River
Haw River at Bynum
Deep River at Moncure
Cape Fear at Lillington

We are monitoring conditions along the Little River at Manchester as
well as the Cape Fear at Fayetteville. Warnings may be needed for
these points later tonight.

In addition, we have issued a long duration Flood Warning for areas
west of the Triangle to account for slowly receding flood waters.
Areas along the Eno River as well as near Hyco Lake are experiencing
ongoing flooding and it will likely be several more hours before
water recedes. This is in addition to numerous low lying spots
across the area.

The flooding is the result of a narrow swath of heavy rainfall
stretching from Hoke/Scotland Co northward to Person Co. Rainfall
observations this morning suggest these areas saw a remarkable 5-11
inches of rainfall during the day Sunday. Significantly less
rainfall was seen on either side of this corridor, with many
locations east of I-95 and west of I-74 seeing less than an inch of
rain. In addition to the numerous swift water rescues that occurred
Sunday and Sunday night, the Haw River at Haw River crested just shy
of its all time record this morning, while it appears the Haw River
at Bynum did in fact reach a new record.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-023>028-
040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Leins
HYDROLOGY...Leins