674
FXUS62 KRAH 050530
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
through early Saturday. A coastal front will strengthen and move
inland across the Carolinas later Saturday and Saturday night, ahead
of Tropical Depression Three that will drift northward and to near
the SC coast early Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

* Isold showers in far SE through sunset, then dry overnight.

A quiet night ahead, as high pressure centered near Lk Ontario noses
southward into the NC Piedmont. This high will shift ESE and off the
Mid Atlantic coast through tonight, driven by a deep mid-upper low
swinging through the Canadian Maritimes. We`ll remain in col area
tonight with weak steering flow between this low to our NE, a weaker
mid level low E of JAX, and an anticyclone over the mid Miss Valley.
GOES WV layer imagery shows dry air across our S and W, where
surface dewpoints are generally in the 60s, while it`s more moist
through the column over our SE, where surface dewpoints sit around
70s to the low 70s. The NHC continues to investigate a surface low
off the SVN/JAX coast for signs of tropical development (see
hurricanes.gov for the very latest information). Regardless of
development, this low is expected to move little through tonight,
but its circulation will continue to draw Atlantic moisture inland
into our far SE tonight, supporting isolated showers there until
sundown and an attendant drop in instability. Isolated patches of
fog could form late tonight into early Sat in our far SE, but
otherwise, expect generally fair to mostly clear skies areawide
through tonight, with the greater cloud cover in the SE. Expect lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

* Clouds and rain chances go up in the southeast, but northwest
  should stay dry.
* Low off the GA coast continues to be monitored.

The low off the Southeast coast is expected to take on a slow
roughly northward drift Sat/Sat night, and while our mid-upper level
flow will remain rather weak, the increasing onshore low level wind
component and tightening MSLP gradient should allow for greater
inland penetration of the higher dewpoints and PW. Cloud cover is
expected to increase from WSW to ENE, most markedly Sat night when
the 1.5-2.0" PW surges inland into much of the CWA. Western areas
should see enough residual dry air in the mid and upper levels
through Sat night, but expect patchy rain to spread into the SE (esp
Wadesboro to RWI to the SE) Sat afternoon and eventually into the
Triangle by late Sat night. Overall QPF should not be high through
Sat night, although increasing warm cloud depth and PWs approaching
2.25" in our far SE (such as at CTZ and GSB) will mean an increased
risk of heavy downpours overnight. After highs Sat in the upper 80s
to low 90s (a degree or two lower than today, based on more clouds),
expect lows mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

* A tropical development is possible off the coast near the FL/GA
  border later today or Saturday. Regardless of development, rain
  chances will increase Sunday and Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Friday.

As of the 200 PM tropical weather outlook from the NHC, there is a
high (70%) chance of formation of a tropical or subtropical
depression developing off the coast near the FL/GA border.
Regardless of development, rain chances will increase Sunday and
potentially Monday as the system moves northward. Local impacts are
expected to be locally heavy rain and a few stronger storms, with
the greatest chance being in the southeast. There is uncertainty
with the speed of the system, leaving low confidence in how long
rain chances will continue on Monday. After this system exits the
region, we will return to a pattern of diurnal showers/storms each
afternoon from the rest of the extended period as multiple shortwave
troughs pass through the region.

Temperatures on Sunday will be around 5 degrees below average, with
highs expected in the mid 80s. Maximum temperatures are expected to
increase a few degrees on Monday, into the upper 80s to low 90s, and
should increase further on Tuesday into the low to mid 90s.
Wednesday to Friday are expected to have highs in the low 90s. Along
with this, heat indices may return to the low 100s Tuesday through
Friday. Lows each night are expected in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

There is reasonably high confidence in VFR for most of the TAF
period. We cannot rule out some very brief patchy fog into early
Sat, but any consistent signal is too low to include at this time.
ENE winds will pick up Sat, with gusts of 15 to 20 kt at RDU, FAY,
RWI ahead of Tropical Depression 3. Convective bands tied to this
depression could impact RDU, FAY, RWI in the 18 to 00z period, with
the highest confidence at FAY and RWI. For now, given low confidence
overall, have kept PROB30 in the TAF. Increasing moist flow Sat
night with TD 3 should favor gradual increasing flight restrictions
to MVFR/IFR, and isolated showers/storms, by Sun morning, earliest
at FAY.

Outlook: The chance for showers/storms, flight restrictions, and
breezy nely flow will further increase Sun as the remnants of now
Tropical Depression 3 move nwd across the Carolinas through Mon,
with the greatest impact at FAY, RWI, and RDU. A humid airmass will
then favor areas of morning stratus and fog and afternoon-evening
showers/storms through most of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/MWS