412
FXUS62 KRAH 041822
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
225 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region from the north
through Saturday. An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast is
expected to drift northward and bring wet weather to the central and
eastern Carolinas Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

* Isold showers in far SE through sunset, then dry overnight.

A quiet night ahead, as high pressure centered near Lk Ontario noses
southward into the NC Piedmont. This high will shift ESE and off the
Mid Atlantic coast through tonight, driven by a deep mid-upper low
swinging through the Canadian Maritimes. We`ll remain in col area
tonight with weak steering flow between this low to our NE, a weaker
mid level low E of JAX, and an anticyclone over the mid Miss Valley.
GOES WV layer imagery shows dry air across our S and W, where
surface dewpoints are generally in the 60s, while it`s more moist
through the column over our SE, where surface dewpoints sit around
70s to the low 70s. The NHC continues to investigate a surface low
off the SVN/JAX coast for signs of tropical development (see
hurricanes.gov for the very latest information). Regardless of
development, this low is expected to move little through tonight,
but its circulation will continue to draw Atlantic moisture inland
into our far SE tonight, supporting isolated showers there until
sundown and an attendant drop in instability. Isolated patches of
fog could form late tonight into early Sat in our far SE, but
otherwise, expect generally fair to mostly clear skies areawide
through tonight, with the greater cloud cover in the SE. Expect lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Less humid and more comfortable conditions
* Slight uptick in scattered shower/storm chances along/east of I-95

High pressure over the NE US will gradually shift off the coast late
Sat. At the same time, we will be watching the weak area of low
pressure that NHC is monitoring east of Jacksonville, FL that is
forecast to be somewhere off the coast of SC by early Sun. The two
pressure systems will again promote an ENE flow. Dewpoints are
forecast to be lower still relative to Fri, promoting heat indices
only in the upper 80s to around 90. It should feel more comfortable,
even with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. There will be a
slightly better chance of some isolated to scattered storms in the
day and evening, mainly for areas along/east of I-95. Moisture
transport north of the approaching low is set to increase into Sun
morning. Ridging during the day, however, should keep the best
chances mainly south and east of the Triangle. Increasing cloud
cover and the higher rain chances by Sun should favor warmer lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2550 AM Wednesday...

* A low pressure area developing near the FL/GA coast is expected to
  drift north and move across the eastern Carolinas on Sunday into
  Monday. The main impact for central NC will be increased rain
  chances on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night into Monday,
  especially across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills.

* Otherwise, temperatures, humidity and chances of mainly afternoon
  and evening storms increase for Monday through Thursday with
  Tuesday and Wednesday the hottest days of the period and the best
  chance of showers and storms on Wednesday and especially Thursday.

A surface low organizing east of Jacksonville, Florida is expected
to lift north and the latest guidance suggests that the low center
will move onshore across the eastern SC or southern NC coast on
Sunday. Global ensembles suggest two camps for the storm motion with
those that have a weaker system moving it more slowly and perhaps
more westward while the members with a modestly stronger/deeper
system moving it a little faster northeast. The trend over the last
24 hours is for a slightly more organized system that perhaps moves
a little further inland across the NC Coastal Plain late Sunday into
Monday.

The NHC notes a 60% chance of a system developing and this is
largely semantics, as the impacts will largely be the same with
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon and
evening continuing into Monday with the greatest rain coverage
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. The overall pattern suggests
that precipitation would be skewed near and right of the low track.
While some showers and storms will spread into the Piedmont, expect
coverage to be somewhat limited near and especially west of U.S.
route 1. Given the modest low pressure area, dont expect any wind
issues but the inland penetration of the attendant coastal trough
could introduce a risk of locally heavy rain and a few stronger
convective cells across eastern areas. With considerable cloudiness,
highs should be tempered a bit on Sunday and range in the mid 80s
although if the cloud shield is confined across eastern areas, highs
could reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the western Piedmont and
Triad.

The forecast for Monday is somewhat uncertain and largely dependent
on the evolution and motion of the surface low. With many ensemble
members suggesting the system could be moving away from central NC
by midday Monday, Monday could end up a nice day with limited storm
chances during the afternoon and evening. A slower motion could
result in an unsettled day, especially across eastern locations.
Will need to wait and see.

A gradual evolution to weak eastern U.S. troughiness occurs for
Tuesday through Thursday resulting in an increasing risk for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest risk on
Wednesday into Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be with hottest
days of the period with highs in the lower 90s across the area. With
dewpoints persisting in the lower and possibly mid 70s, afternoon
heat index values will peaking around 100 in much of the area with a
few low 100s in the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Highs will back off
a bit on Thursday as increased cloud cover and rain chances results
in highs in the upper 80s to around 90. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Confidence is fairly high that VFR conditions will persist at all
central NC terminals for the next 24 hours. A mix of sct flat
daytime cu and high thin cloudiness, both mostly over the SE (FAY),
is expected through Sat. A little fog, most likely MVFR if it
occurs, is possible in the SE where dewpoints are higher, and a
mention was included in the FAY TAF early Sat morning. Surface winds
will stay from the NE or ENE, mostly 10 kt or lower but with a few
G15-18 through this afternoon, and again starting late morning Sat.

Looking beyond 18z Sat, a few showers are possible near FAY late Sat
into the evening, but VFR conditions should prevail there and
elsewhere. A surface low off SAV may attain tropical characteristics
as it holds steady through Sat then drifts slowly N through Sun.
Regardless of any tropical development, increasing rain chances and
gusty winds are expected spreading SE to NW Sun through Mon. FAY
will have the highest chances for adverse aviation conditions, with
lesser chances at RDU/RWI and much lower chances at INT/GSO. This
low should exit by Tue, but daily scattered storms remain possible
Tue/Wed. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Hartfield