707
FXUS62 KRAH 031835
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure centered just offshore the Middle Atlantic
coast will linger over the Carolinas through tonight. A subtropical
ridge will otherwise extend across the South Atlantic states through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 217 PM Wednesday...

Latest satellite observations show cumulus developing across the
region as high pressure is centered off NJ coast. Upper level ridge
over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly shift offshore by Thursday.
Increased moisture levels moving into the region will result in dew
points in the mid/upper 60s later this evening and into the low 70s
by Thursday morning. Temperatures across the region this afternoon
are in the mid to upper 80s with expectations for most areas to hit
90 degrees. Lows overnight will 3-6 degrees above average 68-71.
Light southeast surface winds will slowly shift to SW by early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday..

A 595dm upper level ridge will extend from the Gulf Coast states NE
toward the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday while surface high pressure
continues to slip further offshore and allows moist southerly return
flow to engulf the Carolinas.  With southwesterly flow and deep
mixing, dry adiabatic mixing technique yields mid to upper 90s for
highs, which is on the higher side of guidance (equivalent to the
75th to 90th percentile range of the NBM) but not out of the realm
of possibility. Thus will lean towards the higher side of guidance
for highs. Deep mixing also suggests dewpoints will be able to mix
out a little into the mid to upper 60s in a lot of areas, helping to
keep heat indices in the low 100s for the most part.  Will note that
HeatRisk suggests moderate impacts, with much greater impacts Friday
into Saturday.

Regarding any convection, the stout mid-level cap that has been
present this week will still be around early Thursday, weakening
somewhat across the north as a trough moving into the Great Lakes
tampers down the northern edge of the upper ridge.  CAPE looks
pretty limited due to the cap and mixing of dewpoints, but hires
guidance suggests some isolated development on the mtn ridges and
lee trough, perhaps migrating from SW VA toward the northern
Piedmont along loosely-consolidated outflow.  PW will also still be
less than 1.5 inches, so the number of storms should also be
limited. Thus the best chance of isolated storms should be from the
Triad to Person County later in the afternoon and evening.  Where
storms do occur, the deep mixing and dry air will favor damaging
winds as the greatest threat.

Without better moisture available, convection is expected to wane
quickly Thursday evening.  Dewpoints will continue their background
rise with the return flow, creeping into the lower 70s and keeping
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Aloft, a potent northern stream s/w will move through the Great
Lakes Fri/Fri night, as the longwave trough amplifies southward
through the Plains and MS Valley. As the trough amplifies, the high
over the Southeast US will be gradually pushed southeastward off the
Southeast US coast Fri night/Sat. Another northern stream s/w will
drop into the northern Plains and track eastward along the US/Canada
border Sat/Sat night as the initial s/w lifts newd into Canada. As
this second s/w moves through the Great Lakes Sun/Sun night, another
disturbance will quickly drop ssewd through the northern Rockies and
into the central Plains, helping further amplify the longwave trough
through the southern Plains/lower MS Valley by Mon morning. All the
while, central NC will remain situated between the trough to the
west and the high to the east, with deep southwesterly flow
prevailing. The fly in the ointment is the medium-range guidance
picking up on a possible tropical low approaching the Carolina coast
over the weekend. There is some uncertainty wrt this feature for Mon
and Tue. Also on Sun/Sun night, Beryl is expected to make landfall
along the western Gulf Coast, however exactly where that happens and
when will determine what happens to the system as/where it moves
inland early next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the
forecast for Mon/Tue, but for now, it appears the longwave trough
axis will generally remain west of the Appalachians through Tue,
while s/w disturbances move through it. At the surface, a lee trough
will remain in place through Sat, when a cold front will approach
from the west. As of the latest model solutions, the front still
appears to get hung up and generally wash out along the Appalachians
Sat night, as Bermuda high pressure ridges westward. An area of low
pressure will sit off the Southeast US coast Fri/Fri night, then
weaken on Sat before the remnants of the low lift newd off the
Carolina coast Sat night/Sun. possibly laying W-E through WV/VA Sun
as high pressure lifts newd through the OH Valley and Northeast, but
the front appears to stay north of central NC. Expect swly flow and
the advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once the
ridge moves out Thu morning and prevail through at least Sat. The
lee trough should once again strengthen over the area early next
week.

Temperatures will be above to well above normal through Tue. Latest
forecast heat index values of 100-106 are expected across much of
central NC for Fri and Sat. Sun and Mon heat index values max out
around 100, mainly across the south, but may creep upward again on
Tue.

As for rainfall, the weather seems to be turning a bit wetter. As
the mid-level ridge gradually gets suppressed south and the lee
trough strengthens, expect more diurnally driven convection Fri
through Tue, with higher chances/amounts as s/w disturbances clip
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions expected for the 24 hour TAF period as high pressure
dominants the region. While high pressure is centered just of the NJ
coast, onshore flow is helping produce a nice Cu field across much
of North Carolina. No restrictions are expected with a more
widespread development of clouds across the area later tonight and
into tomorrow morning. Winds will be overall light and variable,
with onshore SE flow this afternoon slowly swinging to a SW flow by
Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are possible in the NW by Thursday
afternoon ahead of a tough moving into the region. Also, showers and
storms will be possible Thursday afternoon in the NW with increasing
chances spreading across Central NC Friday through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 98/1970
KRDU: 101/2012
KFAY: 98/2019

July 5:
KGSO: 98/2012
KRDU: 102/1999
KFAY: 101/2002

July 6:
KRDU: 102/2022
KFAY: 99/1990


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 73/2018

July 5:
KGSO: 74/1999
KRDU: 78/1902
KFAY: 77/2005

July 6:
KGSO: 76/1999
KRDU: 79/1900
KFAY: 76/2017

July 7:
KGSO: 73/2019
KRDU: 77/1900
KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...bls
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH