829
FXUS62 KRAH 022000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will offshore into the Mid-Atlantic through
Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to warm up for the 4th of July
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday..

As surface high pressure currently centered over the Northeast
continues to slowly slide offshore this afternoon, quiet weather
will continue across Central NC. Dew points today have been in the
50s across the region, with onshore moisture moving in later this
evening dew points will get into the 60s later tonight especially in
the eastern portions of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. High
temperatures will top out this afternoon in the mid 80s with a few
areas in the south getting into the upper 80s. Lows overnight will
be slightly warmer than last night ranging from low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday..

Continued dry on Wednesday under the influence of a 1024mb high off
the Mid-Atlantic coast and and eastward shifting 595dm sub-tropical
at 500mb over the Deep South.  As the surface high shifts eastward
as well, return flow will begin to kick in, but likely not until
late in the day, delaying the return of upper 60s and lower 70
dewpoints until Thursday.  1000-850mb thicknesses rise 15-20m over
today`s expected values, which will result in highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s, coolest in the northeast away from the thermal.
ridge.

With southerly return flow becoming established Wednesday night,
guidance suggests some stratocu across the foothills and drifting
into the western Piedmont, with otherwise quiet weather and lows
likely to range from the upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

A mid-level anticyclone stretching from the Southern Plains to the
Deep South will gradually shift east to off the Southeast US coast
from Thursday into early next week as a series of shortwaves moves
from the Northern Plains into the Northern Great Lakes and Southeast
Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of us, increasing
southwesterly flow aloft between a mid-level trough that sets up to
our west and the ridging to our east will bring in PW values
exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Tuesday. The first
shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches the
Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out
before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become
south/southwesterly ahead of the front as high pressure initially
just east of NC on Thursday continues to push farther east near
Bermuda. This will increase dew points into the upper-60s to lower-
70s on Thursday, then lower-to-mid-70s from this weekend into early
next week. With better moisture and instability in place along with
a lee surface trough setting up, shower and storm chances will
return each afternoon and evening, mainly over the northern and
western Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through
Tuesday. The greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are
in the NW on Friday and Saturday, shifting more to the south and
east for the rest of the period. The storms look to be more of the
pulse variety given the lack of shear, so widespread severe weather
is not expected.

The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which
are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from
Thursday through Saturday. The current forecast comes within 2-3
degrees of the daily records highs at all three climate sites (GSO,
RDU and FAY), as seen in the climate section below. Lows won`t
provide a lot of relief either, only dropping into the mid-to-upper-
70s. Heat indices of 100-105 will be possible on Thursday, and basic
heat precautions should still be taken especially given the
Independence Day holiday with a lot of people spending time
outdoors. But Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most
humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected
from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely
be needed on these days. At least a slight moderation is expected
from Sunday through Tuesday, but exactly how much we cool down is
still uncertain. The raw GFS and ECMWF depict some highs in the 80s,
but their ensembles aren`t as cool, and would like to see more
consistency before lowering forecast temperatures too much.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable
winds this afternoon will become  calm for a few hours before
sunrise across most areas. A few very isolated gusts of 15-20kts are
possible this afternoon, but not frequent enough to add to TAF.

Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC
Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri
through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 98/1970
KRDU: 101/2012
KFAY: 98/2019

July 5:
KGSO: 98/2012
KRDU: 102/1999
KFAY: 101/2002

July 6:
KRDU: 102/2022
KFAY: 99/1990


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KGSO: 73/2018

July 5:
KGSO: 74/1999
KRDU: 78/1902
KFAY: 77/2005

July 6:
KGSO: 76/1999
KRDU: 79/1900
KFAY: 76/2017

July 7:
KGSO: 73/2019
KRDU: 77/1900
KFAY: 78/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CA/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH