170
FXUS62 KRAH 010633
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will push through the area very early today. Much drier
and cooler high pressure will then extend into the southeast today
through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and humidity is expected
by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

The cold front was moving south through southern VA into northern
NC. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along
and near the front. As it moves south through central NC through
12z, there will continue to be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. PW values of 2+ inches will continue to support
locally heavy downpours.

A 1027 mb surface high pressure located over WI/MI this morning will
build into NC from the north behind the cold front. Much drier and
cooler air will advect into the region today. There will be a period
of gusty wind from the NE at 10 to 20 mph behind the front for
several hours this morning, before diminishing gusts in the
afternoon. Stratus and stratocumulus will gradually decrease through
late morning and early afternoon in the east. Skies will become
mostly sunny this afternoon with highs only in the lower to mid 80s.

Mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

The high pressure will be located along the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Sunny skies with low relative humidities
can be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Clear and
relatively cool conditions are expected Tuesday night with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday...

A common summertime airmass moderation will occur throughout the
week as the sub-tropical ridge, briefly tempered by today`s
shortwave and cold front, will build back east across the region,
while the Bermuda highs allows moisture to return back across the
region with winds turning to southerly by late Wednesday into
Thursday.  The upper ridge, progged to again reach 596dm+ by
Thursday across the southeast US, will also support the return of
highs in the mid/upper 90s areawide and potentially 100s in some
locations.  Dewpoints are also progged to trend back into the lower
70s, particularly in the east on the downshear side of the lee
trough.  This will may again result in dangerous heat and humidity
as has been observed for the past few days.  Rain chances will hinge
on the lee trough and other diurnally forced circulations Thursday
into the weekend,  Models to hint at a weak cold front by Sunday
Monday with an upper trough over the northern US.  Confidence in
that remains low at days 7/89.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue across central
NC early this morning as a cold front moves through between 10z and
13z. The best chance at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI).
Some stratus is also expected to develop after about 07z-08z at FAY
and RWI, with MVFR or IFR ceilings possible. Models differ on how
far west the sub-VFR stratus will reach, but for now have a TEMPO
for MVFR ceilings at RDU. Winds will shift from S/SW to NE behind
the cold front. NE winds may gust to 15-25 kts into early afternoon
before gradually diminishing.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday afternoon through
Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return
flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for
diurnal showers/ storms and early morning fog/stratus from Friday
into next weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...bls
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco