Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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108 FXUS62 KRAH 011047 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area very early today. Much drier and cooler high pressure will then extend into the southeast today through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and humidity is expected by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Monday... The cold front was moving south through into northern NC. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along and near the front. As it moves south through central NC through 14z, there will continue to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. PW values of 2+ inches will continue to support locally heavy downpours. A 1027 mb surface high pressure located over WI/MI this morning will build into NC from the north behind the cold front. Much drier and cooler air will advect into the region today. There will be a period of gusty wind from the NE at 10 to 20 mph behind the front for several hours this morning, before diminishing gusts in the afternoon. Stratus and stratocumulus will gradually decrease through late morning and early afternoon in the east. Skies will become mostly sunny this afternoon with highs only in the lower to mid 80s. Mostly clear skies can be expected tonight with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Monday... The high pressure will be located along the eastern seaboard on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Sunny skies with low relative humidities can be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Clear and relatively cool conditions are expected Tuesday night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Monday... Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will sit over the TN Valley/Deep South Wed/Wed night. A series of northern stream s/w disturbances will track eastward from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes/OH Valley from Tue through Sun, with each successive s/w slowly pushing the high, first southward to over the Southeast and Deep South Thu and Fri then eastward off the Southeast US and mid- Atlantic coast Sat and Sun. At the surface, the high will sit off the mid-Atlantic coast Wed/Wed night, with the ridge axis shifting eastward out of central NC through early Thu. Once the ridge shifts east out of the area, a lee trough will set up and remain in place through Sat night, when a cold front will approach from the west. As of the latest model solutions, the front appears to wash out along or west of the Appalachians. Expect swly flow and the advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once the ridge moves out Thu morning. Temperatures may actually be near normal on Wed, but will then be above to well above normal Thu through Sun. As for rainfall, Wed/Wed night should be dry, but as the mid-level ridge gradually gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, some diurnally driven convection will be possible Thu, but more likely Fri, Sat, and Sun aft/eve. Latest forecast heat index values do creep back to around 105 again in a few spots on Thu, however the more widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 (across much of central NC) are expected Fri and Sat. Some lingering heat index values of 100-105 are possible across the south and east on Sun. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM Monday... Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue across central NC early this morning as a cold front moves through between 12z and 14z. The best chance at the eastern terminals (RDU, FAY and RWI). Some stratus is also expected to develop after about 07z-08z at FAY and RWI, with MVFR or IFR ceilings possible. Winds will shift to the NE behind the cold front. NE winds may gust to 15-25 kts into early afternoon before gradually diminishing. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Monday afternoon through Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal showers/ storms and early morning fog/stratus from Friday into next weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Badgett