![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
578 FXUS62 KRAH 011956 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 356 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Much drier and cooler high pressure will then extend into the southeast today through Tuesday. A gradual return of heat and humidity is expected by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday... Post-frontal dry air continues to spill south into central NC this afternoon as dew points are currently hovering in the lower to mid 50s (N) to lower 60s (S). Temperatures are currently hovering in the upper 70s/lower 80s, and shouldn`t increase too much more today. Expect some residual gusts to persist the next few hours, but sfc winds should subside through sunset. A pleasant night is on tap with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dew points in the 50s under mostly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday.. Surface high centered over the New York region will stretch into NC from the north bringing a short relief from the heat. Light northerly flow will result in temps ranging in the low to mid 80s for much of the area. It will feel comfortable outside as dew points will stay in the 50s during the day. By Tuesday evening the surface high will shift offshore and the surface flow over central NC will become more south/southeasterly. Tuesday night will be dry and clear with lows ranging in from the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 PM Monday... A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the TN Valley and Deep South on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure centered just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday morning will shift farther east, shifting the low-level flow to a S/SE direction. This will continue a warming trend, but conditions still won`t be too oppressive with near-normal highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s, as dew points mix out to the upper-50s to lower-60s in the afternoon. This pattern of ridging and subsidence will also support one last day of no precipitation chances. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper-60s to lower-70s. The mid-level anticyclone will gradually break down and shift southeast away from our region during the remainder of the extended period as a series of shortwaves moves across the northern tier of the US and SE Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of us, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will bring in higher PW values exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Monday. The most potent shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches the Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become south/southwesterly ahead of the front and as high pressure continues to push farther east near Bermuda. This will increase dew points into the upper-60s to mid-70s. With better moisture and instability in place along with a lee trough setting up, shower and storm chances will return each afternoon and evening, first over the Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through Monday. The greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are in the NW on Friday and Saturday, shifting to the SE on Sunday and Monday. The storms look to be more of a pulse variety given the lack of shear, so widespread severe weather is not expected. The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from Thursday through Saturday. Heat indices in the low-100s will be possible on Thursday, and basic heat precautions should still be taken especially given the Independence Day holiday with a lot of people outdoors. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely be needed on these days. A slight moderation is expected on Sunday and Monday, but highs will still be in the lower-to-mid-90s with little to no relief from the humidity. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 PM Monday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period as dry air filters in behind a departing cold front. Some residual VFR stratocu may stick around some this afternoon, but overall skies should be mostly clear. Residual gusty nely sfc flow early this afternoon will subside through later this afternoon and into the evening. Light nly flow early Tuesday will turn more ely but remain light in the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tuesday through Thursday as dry high pressure extends down into central NC. Return flow on Friday will promote increasing humidity and the chance for diurnal showers and early morning fog/stratus next weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...Luchetti