049
FXUS65 KPUB 012011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms during the next 24 hours, a few
  gusty strong storms possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for
  Wednesday.

- Drier conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean
  less thunderstorm coverage for many, but potential fire
  danger over portions of the high country and the San Luis
  Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Currently...

Early this afternoon, showers and storm were ongoing across teh
mountains and valleys, and were starting to develop along the
greater I-25 corridor region of the plains. Lots of clouds were
noted over the higher terrain while a good part of the far eastern
plains were mostly clear.

Through tomorrow afternoon...

A good moisture plume from the southwest will continue over the
region during the next 24 hours. This, along with a broad mid level
trough to our north, will keep the threat of showers and
thunderstorms over the region during this forecast period. Flow
aloft is fairly modest, so any storms should move along at a pretty
good clip, so flooding threat are low (but nonzero).

The trough mentioned above will push a weak cool front down the
plains later tonight through tomorrow morning. additionally, drier
air will come in behind the front over the higher terrain, so the
overall best chance of rain tomorrow will be along the
mountains/plains interface and I-25 corridor region, with drier and
warmer conditions occurring over the mountains tomorrow. The plains
will be a few degrees cooler than today, with temps being several
degrees cooler over the far eastern plains.

Given the flow aloft, a few strong storms will be possible both this
afternoon/evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening, with strong gusty
winds the main concern. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Wednesday..

For Wednesday, post-frontal conditions will mean a slightly cooler
day with another slight uptick in thunderstorm chances across the
area. Our high temperatures look to top out in the mid 80s to low
90s for our plains, with upper 70s and low 80s for mountain valleys,
and 60s for higher terrain locations. We remain on the southern
periphery of longwave troughing as it passes to our north, while
shortwave energy embedded in the longwave pattern continues to bring
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. SPC has a majority
of our plains outlooked for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
on Wednesday, and at this time the main risks look to be lightning
and gusty outflow winds.

Independence Day..

We continue to dry out as we head into Thursday, which will have
both positive and negative impacts to our forecast. On the positive
side, most areas can expect lots of sunshine, and little to no
chances for precipitation for Fourth of July celebrations. On the
down side, many areas will likely see high fire danger for Thursday,
especially over the high country and the San Luis Valley. Very dry
conditions are expected over the higher terrain and for the mountain
valleys, with relative humidity values falling into the teens
through Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Gusty west winds
are also expected over the high country for Thursday as well, with
gusts to 35 mph possible in many locations. Dry conditions are also
expected over portions of Teller and Pueblo counties, though winds
are expected to remain below critical threshold in these areas.
Fuels and recent rainfall may help to mitigate fire danger for
Thursday, but the overall "hot, dry and windy" forecast that is
becoming more and more likely over some of our mountain and valley
communities over the Fourth of July is something that needs to be
taken seriously either way.

Friday Onwards..

Late Thursday night or into Friday, models bring a cold front across
the area, increasing moisture and precip chances as we head into
Friday and further into this weekend. Friday through Sunday`s
pattern is dominated by northwesterly flow aloft, as a strong ridge
of high pressure sits over the West Coast through much of this
period. This pattern will lead to a gradual warming and drying
trend, after one day of below normal post-frontal temperatures on
our plains for Friday. Expect decreasing coverage and intensity for
storms through the weekend, with storms remaining mostly over and
near the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

As for winds, west to northwest winds will prevail at the taf
sites this afternoon, with winds taking on their diurnal flow
pattern by early evening.

Some passing showers/-tsra with gusty winds will be possible,
especially late this afternoon and early evening. Any shower
activity should move through pretty quickly.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH