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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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851 FXUS65 KPUB 102022 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 222 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain possible, especially mountains this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. - With lots of moisture over region and weak disturbances moving east in the upper flow, showers will last well into the early AM hours, especially mtns. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Currently... A large amount of shower and thunderstorm activity was noted on the western slope across the San Juans and central mtns, and was moving east. Low clouds over the plains have finally dissipated (except for extreme eastern plains), and temps were quickly recovering. Next 24 hours... Overall, with lots of moisture over the region and several disturbances moving east with the rather strong east-west jet just to our north, the region will see quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity during the next 24 hours. Strongest convection will occur during prime heating both days, and most of the heavier rain will occur over the mountains. What will be a bit different then most days is that there is 1.) A good chance that the activity will go into the nighttime hours, and 2.) The San Luis valley may see an quite a bit of rain during this period. The main threat during this period will be some locally heavy rainers, and flash flooding over the higher terrain, along with mud and rock slides in the mtns, will be a concern. Based on latest data, areas along the CONTDVD, especially over the San Juans, will likely see the heaviest rain this afternoon and early evening, with another band coming across the Divide late tonight. As for the plains the storms will be less in coverage but they may be a bit stronger, especially over the Palmer Divide (N El Paso) and along the I-25 corridor. It is not out of the question we may see some late night thunder along the I-25 corridor in spots. For tomorrow, the storms may be a bit less widespread, but they may be a better chance of stronger storms with heavier rain over the Pikes Peak region per latest ensemble guidance. Max temps tomorrow will continue to increase, and we should see temps about 3 to 6 degrees warmer than today. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Sunday night through Wednesday...Models continue to agree on keeping a somewhat flat ridge of high pressure over the southern US, producing a predominantly westerly flow aloft for Colorado. With this sort of pattern, the state will be susceptible to disturbances passing by to the north, and there will be a fairly good chance for shower and storm activity each afternoon and evening over the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor. One disturbance passing by Sunday evening, and another late Monday, will provide the upper dynamics while tapping into the llvl moisture pooled across the eastern plains. This will fuel forecast CAPE in the 1500-2500 j/kg range across the plains both Mon and Tue. In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear looks favorable on Mon, so chances are very good for stronger storms Mon aftn and eve, carrying over into Tue. The lower levels begin to dry out slightly on Wed, so convection coverage and intensity is expected to be a bit less that day. Therefore, precipitation chances are forecast to be likely to categorical over the higher terrain while scattered for the eastern plains Mon and Tue, then scattered to likely for the mts and I-25 Corridor Wed while isolated across the eastern plains. As for high temps, look for readings in the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys each day, and in the 80s to around 90F for the plains. Thursday and Friday...Long range models continue to diverge on the extended solution. One model camp amplifies the upper ridge over the central US while deepening a low pressure system over the West Coast, which in turns produces southwest flow across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region, and increase precipitation chances. Another model camp slides the upper high to the west over the Four Corners and Great Basin regions, producing dry and much warmer conditions for Colorado heading into the weekend. At this point it is a coin flip, so extended procedure leaned towards scattered convection chances for the higher terrain and isolated activity for the plains each afternoon and eve, along with maximum temps right around seasonal normals. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Main concern this period will be occasional showers moving across the entire region. Overall expect the majority of the fcst period will see VFR conditions, but heavier showers may allow for brief periods of MVFR. Additionally, towards tomorrow morning, we may see some fog/lower cigs at the taf sites. Winds through the fcst period will generally be light, but may see some gusty NW winds later this afternoon at KALS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH