851
FXUS65 KPUB 102022
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
222 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain possible, especially mountains this
  afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

- With lots of moisture over region and weak disturbances moving
  east in the upper flow, showers will last well into the early
  AM hours, especially mtns.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Currently...

A large amount of shower and thunderstorm activity was noted on the
western slope across the San Juans and central mtns, and was moving
east. Low clouds over the plains have finally dissipated (except for
extreme eastern plains), and temps were quickly recovering.

Next 24 hours...

Overall, with lots of moisture over the region and several
disturbances moving east with the rather strong east-west jet just
to our north, the region will see quite a bit of shower and
thunderstorm activity during the next 24 hours. Strongest convection
will occur during prime heating both days, and most of the heavier
rain will occur over the mountains. What will be a bit different
then most days is that there is 1.) A good chance that the activity
will go into the nighttime hours, and 2.) The San Luis valley may
see an quite a bit of rain during this period. The main threat
during this period will be some locally heavy rainers, and flash
flooding over the higher terrain, along with mud and rock slides in
the mtns, will be a concern. Based on latest data, areas along the
CONTDVD, especially over the San Juans, will likely see the heaviest
rain this afternoon and early evening, with another band coming
across the Divide late tonight.

As for the plains the storms will be less in coverage but they may
be a bit stronger, especially over the Palmer Divide (N El Paso) and
along the I-25 corridor. It is not out of the question we may see
some late night thunder along the I-25 corridor in spots.

For tomorrow, the storms may be a bit less widespread, but they may
be a better chance of stronger storms with heavier rain over the
Pikes Peak region per latest ensemble guidance.

Max temps tomorrow will continue to increase, and we should see
temps about 3 to 6 degrees warmer than today. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Sunday night through Wednesday...Models continue to agree on keeping
a somewhat flat ridge of high pressure over the southern US,
producing a predominantly westerly flow aloft for Colorado. With
this sort of pattern, the state will be susceptible to disturbances
passing by to the north, and there will be a fairly good chance for
shower and storm activity each afternoon and evening over the higher
terrain and I-25 Corridor. One disturbance passing by Sunday
evening, and another late Monday, will provide the upper dynamics
while tapping into the llvl moisture pooled across the eastern
plains. This will fuel forecast CAPE in the 1500-2500 j/kg range
across the plains both Mon and Tue. In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear
looks favorable on Mon, so chances are very good for stronger storms
Mon aftn and eve, carrying over into Tue. The lower levels begin to
dry out slightly on Wed, so convection coverage and intensity is
expected to be a bit less that day. Therefore, precipitation chances
are forecast to be likely to categorical over the higher terrain
while scattered for the eastern plains Mon and Tue, then scattered
to likely for the mts and I-25 Corridor Wed while isolated across
the eastern plains.

As for high temps, look for readings in the 70s to near 80F for the
high valleys each day, and in the 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...Long range models continue to diverge on the
extended solution. One model camp amplifies the upper ridge over the
central US while deepening a low pressure system over the West
Coast, which in turns produces southwest flow across the Desert
Southwest and Four Corners region, and increase precipitation
chances. Another model camp slides the upper high to the west over
the Four Corners and Great Basin regions, producing dry and much
warmer conditions for Colorado heading into the weekend. At this
point it is a coin flip, so extended procedure leaned towards
scattered convection chances for the higher terrain and isolated
activity for the plains each afternoon and eve, along with maximum
temps right around seasonal normals. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Main concern this period will be occasional showers moving
across the entire region. Overall expect the majority of the
fcst period will see VFR conditions, but heavier showers may
allow for brief periods of MVFR. Additionally, towards tomorrow
morning, we may see some fog/lower cigs at the taf sites. Winds
through the fcst period will generally be light, but may see
some gusty NW winds later this afternoon at KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH