607
FXUS65 KPUB 030947
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon,
  forming over the southeast mountains before moving east into
  this evening.

- Northwest flow aloft and occasional cold fronts will maintain
  a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
  convection through the extended, with temperatures at or
  slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently...

Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight for the plains east of the I-25 corridor and push east
towards the Kansas border. Any storms that develop are expected to
dissipate by early morning. Widespread severe hazards are not
expected due to diurnal cooling and overall lack of forcings, but
large hail could be a concern with localized stronger storms.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Strong zonal flow continues Wednesday as we remain behind a upper
level trough with occasional embedded shortwaves. Expect warm
weather with temperatures in the mid 80`s for the plains, high 70`s
for the mountain valleys and 60s-70s for the mountains.

Wednesday afternoon has a set up that could potentially bring strong
storms to the CWA. Models are showing a weak dry line set up from
the northern half of the state on the eastern plains extending
through southern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. With MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear for the
eastern plains, expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop.
Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon off the Sangre De
Cristos and spread east until they fizzle out overnight. Strong hail
(1.5"+) and winds (60+ mph) are concerns with stronger storms based
on forecast soundings.

Models are in agreement of timing/set up of convection north of the
Palmer Divide, but start to disagree once south of the Palmer Divide
into our CWA. The HRRR is mixing out a majority of the convection
with isolated storms developing off the southern mountains after
noon, propagating east with some strengthening prior to moving into
western Kansas. Ensembles are showing scattered storms develop off
the southern mountains and quickly strengthen as they move off into
the eastern plains. This is the most likely scenario based on
model consensus and the SPC slight thunderstorm outlook for the
northern portion of our CWA including Crowley and Kiowa
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday through Saturday...A strong ridge of high pressure will
reside over the West Coast through Saturday, keeping northwest flow
aloft across CO. Minor disturbances in the upper flow will keep the
threat of isolated to scattered convection in place each afternoon
for the forecast area, with the best chances over the eastern mts, I-
25 Corridor and southern border. A dry cold front drops south across
the Palmer Divide early Thu morning, ushering in cooler conditions.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Thu and Fri,
which is normal for the high valleys but below normal for the
plains. Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended as another
shortwave drops into the Dakotas, increasing winds slightly across
CO and bumping temps up into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the
plains. In addition, spotty near-critical fire weather conditions
will be possible across Fire Zones 220, 222 and 223 where minimum RH
levels are forecast to drop below 15 percent.

Sunday through Tuesday..The large upper ridge to the west starts to
move inland, with the high centroid pushing into the Great Basin
region for the start of the next work week. This will effectively
eliminate the northwest flow aloft that has been in place for a
while now. Meanwhile, a stronger upper shortwave drops south into
the Rockies early Sunday, pushing a cold front south into CO through
the morning. This will knock temps back to below normal across the
plains, as well as support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday across much of the area,
including the eastern plains. Tuesday will start to warm back up
again with less convection chances. As for temps, plan on highs in
the mid 70s to around 80F each day for the high valleys. For the
plains, temps will climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s Sunday and
Monday, then mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. West winds will
pick up this afternoon, gusting to around 25-30 knots, before
weakening in the evening.

KCOS and KPUB: Southeast upsloping winds will dominate most of the
morning, before turning more southerly in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form in the area around mid-afternoon,
moving in from the nearby higher terrain, lowering cloud ceilings
and generating gusty outflow winds. If a thunderstorm manages to
move close to the terminals, winds will become strong and erratic,
around 40 knots or so, and precipitation could briefly limit
visibility into MVFR range.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO