172
FXUS65 KPUB 082047
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon over the San
  Luis Valley and southeast mountains. Seasonably cool for the
  plains.

- Daily rain showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
immediately around the mountains for the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The upper-level trough will continue marching east aloft today,
allowing for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to form across
our southeast mountains and parts of the San Luis Valley this
afternoon. The CAMs are a bit spread on CAPE, ranging between about
200 and 1200 J/kg this afternoon at the base of the valley. Limiting
factors here may be moisture and/or mixing, which makes sense based
on how little coverage the HRRR has (it tends to overmix moisture
out). Shear, on the other hand, looks decent, with models showing
around 25-30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. Looking at forecast
soundings, showers and storms appear high-based, with gusty winds
and hail being our biggest chances for impacts. HREF members do
hoist scattered coverage by late-afternoon, mainly across the
mountains, but with a few storms over the southern part of the
valley as well. Overall, model consensus does call for a few
stronger to possibly severe storms. For the eastern plains, most
models show little to no precip coverage, though a rogue shower or
two could drift off of the mountains later in the day today.

For Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm, with high temperatures
climbing into the high-80s to low-90s across the plains. The eastern
plains will remain mostly dry with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains during the afternoon hours. A few
storms could drift onto the plains later in the evening as the
retreating trough axis moves further east, but at this time chances
are somewhat low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tuesday Night - Sunday: The long term forecast is holding steady,
with afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, and warming
temperatures anticipated. A ridge of high pressure will slowly drift
towards the area, and eventually become stationary during the later
part of this period. Confidence continues to remain high to very
high (>60%) given consistency in model guidance and strong
agreement/support within ensemble model guidance. Flow will remain
northwesterly through much of the week as the high pressure treks
east, and then become northerly to northeasterly as the high
pressure sits over the Colorado and Utah region. Given the
increasing subsidence with this feature, drier conditions are
expected for most, though moisture will remain in place given the
lack of any major synoptic waves. With that said though, while
forcing will be weaker with this pattern, modest orographic lift,
aided by diurnal upsloping, and the moisture still in place, will
allow for daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms
to blossom along and immediately around the mountains. Any
precipitation present is expected to dissipate during the evening
hours as instability lessens and orographics aided by upslope
lessens. As for temperatures a warming trend is anticipated. For
much of the week, temperatures will warm to around seasonal values,
and then likely increase to above seasonal values over the weekend
as the ridge sits over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR is expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.
Thunderstorms are expected in the San Luis Valley this afternoon. At
this time, they are expected to stay clear of the terminal, but if a
storm manages to drift over the terminal we could see gusty erratic
outflow winds and some briefly limited vis and cigs into the MVFR
range.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO